Bell: Smith in driver's seat after crushing Alberta separatist referendum loss

Premier Danielle Smith is now in the driver’s seat. 

All Smith has to do now is grab hold of the wheel and drive. 

We are now getting into the nitty-gritty in a game of high-stakes political poker where Smith must come out and show her hand.

The polls were right though the separatists claimed they were way out of whack because independence voters wouldn’t answer a poll. 

The separatists insisted there was a hidden vote, an unseen vote, a sort of grassroots rebellion simmering just below the surface and undetected by the smarty-pants talking heads of the mainstream media. 

The separatists felt their think-alike podcasters and their buddies on social media had the real story. 

But the real story is the separatists losing by 50 points.  

Maybe in the late vote count there will be a separatist surge and if those chickens hatch we will report the miracle. 

But, as of now, the polls never wavered. An Option 1 Alberta-remain-in-Canada win by 40 or 50 points. 

The needle did not move to the separatists. The support for going to a referendum on Alberta independence did not grow. 

No surprise. 

As loyal readers know, I pointed out time and time again how separatists seemed to be talking among themselves, never breaking out from their comfort zone, their self-imposed bubble, their echo chamber where everyone seems to know everyone else. 

They never really tackled the costs and the risks of Alberta leaving Canada, choosing to go on social media with well-produced images of an Alberta of their imagination, their vision of a near-paradise. 

Calgary, the numbers were big for Option 1. 

Ditto Edmonton. 

Support for Option 2 was stronger outside the cities but even there, riding by riding, area by area, did not deliver for the separatists. 

Some results were close. As these fingers hit this keyboard, only one riding, up in the Peace Country, had a narrow lead for supporting a referendum on independence.

That’s one riding out of 87 ridings. 

On Smith’s nine questions, it looks like the most talked about questions and the ones the premier talked about the most, the Yes or No about Alberta wanting more control of immigration will get a Yes from Albertans. 

Prime Minister Mark Carney told Albertans he wanted a No vote to all nine questions though Smith may not get a nine-for-nine clean sweep. 

Looks like that’s not happening. 

Liberal Ottawa is not out of the doghouse yet. 

The vote in no way means Alberta do not have grievances and the eastern establishment, the so-called Laurentian elites, can now go to sleep. 

Yes, this referendum was a strong vote for Alberta to remain in Canada. 

But it was not a vote for Alberta to be screwed around by the rest of Canada. Far from it.

Still, there will be those who will say Alberta lost its leverage by not having a stronger Option 2 vote, a big enough number to really scare the hell out of Ottawa. 

They insist Smith was outplayed by Carney. 

We will see how that shakes out. 

Thank you, Alberta!

I’m very pleased to see the initial results from Elections Alberta show widespread support for remaining in Canada. Albertans have voted for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada.

Thank you to all Albertans who took time to vote on these critically important… pic.twitter.com/a3Tk7T7k8H

— Danielle Smith (@ABDanielleSmith) October 20, 2026

As for Smith’s UCP, the party members meet in Calgary next month in what will likely be the biggest political convention in Canadian history. 

There has always been talk the separatists would give Smith a tough time and almost all the separatist vote is from UCP supporters. 

There are those in the Alberta independence camp who are not happy with Smith. 

They do not like the fact the premier did not remain neutral and, after all, those on the Option 2 side are the same folks who supported Smith’s bid to become UCP leader. 

What can the separatist UCP members do? 

They can hold Smith’s feet to the fire to make sure she is tough on Carney. 

You see, Carney is also in the driver’s seat because Alberta has a to-do list needing doing and it goes well beyond a pipeline to the west coast. 

Carney should not get away that easy. 

But this separatist brainwave that the UCP would somehow become an independence party is an act of political self-destruction and outright delusion given the resounding referendum results. 

Smith will address Albertans on TV Tuesday night. 

The premier is expected to appeal to unity, to accept the verdict delivered by the court of public opinion, to fight for Alberta within Canada. 

As for Alberta separatism?  

How many times can it be said. 

After they lick their wounds, it is up to the separatists to decide where they go from here.