Fuel prices in Dushanbe have continued to climb since late September. Over the past three weeks, the average price of 92-octane gasoline has risen by 80 dirams per liter, diesel by 90 dirams, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 33 dirams, according to an Asia-Plus survey of filling stations conducted on October 16.
The survey found that a liter of 92-octane gasoline now costs an average of 15.30 somoni, diesel 16.40 somoni, and LPG 7.03 somoni. The average price of 93-octane gasoline stands at 15.90 somoni per liter.
On September 23, 92-octane gasoline cost around 14.50 somoni per liter, diesel 15.50 somoni, and LPG 6.70 somoni.
Over this period, gasoline prices have risen by approximately 5.5%, diesel by 5.8%, and LPG by 5%.
At Allat and Soro Oil filling stations, 92-octane gasoline was selling for 15.30 somoni per liter on October 16. The price of 93-octane gasoline was 15.80 somoni at Soro Oil and 16 somoni at Gazprom Neft.
Diesel cost 16.30 somoni per liter at Allat and Soro Oil and 16.60 somoni at Gazprom Neft. LPG was priced at 7 somoni at the first two stations and 7.10 somoni at the third.
The average prices in this article are based on the three filling stations surveyed and may differ from the citywide average.
Diesel prices reverse September decline
In September, diesel prices moved in the opposite direction from gasoline and LPG prices, falling as supplies from Russia increased.
In late August, diesel cost around 16.50 somoni per liter. By September 23, the price had dropped to 15.50 somoni.
The decline coincided with a sharp increase in Russian diesel supplies to Tajikistan. In August, Russia exported more than 56,000 tons of diesel fuel to the country, compared with approximately 16,000 tons in July.
By mid-October, however, diesel prices had begun rising again. Over three weeks, the price increased by 90 dirams, bringing it close to its late-August level.
How much have fuel prices risen since June?
Despite occasional declines, gasoline and diesel prices remain significantly higher than they were in early summer.
In early June, a liter of 92-octane gasoline in Dushanbe cost around 10.90 somoni, while diesel was priced at approximately 11 somoni.
By October 16, gasoline had risen by 4.40 somoni, or about 40%, and diesel by 5.40 somoni, or approximately 49%.
LPG prices have also climbed following a decline in August. At the end of that month, a liter cost around 5.70 somoni. At the current price of 7.03 somoni, the increase over roughly six weeks amounts to 23%.
Tajik authorities have previously attributed fuel price increases to global market conditions, export restrictions in producing countries, and rising transportation and logistics costs.
Why are fuel prices rising?
Fuel prices in Tajikistan are affected by disruptions to global petroleum product supplies, changes in international prices, and higher transportation costs. The country is particularly vulnerable to these factors because it relies heavily on imported fuel, primarily from Russia.
In June, Russian gasoline exports to Central Asia and Afghanistan fell by 34%. In July, Russian gasoline supplies directly to Tajikistan dropped by approximately half, to 14,100 tons.
Russia has continued to restrict fuel exports to stabilize its domestic market. In late September, the Russian government extended restrictions on diesel exports by producers through October 31 and the ban on gasoline exports through January 31, 2027. Certain deliveries, including those covered by intergovernmental agreements, are exempt.
Global market: Oil prices rise as diesel supplies tighten
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) October report, published on October 14, said global oil and petroleum product markets continued to be affected by the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to supplies.
According to the agency, Brent crude futures had risen by 13% since early September, reaching approximately $107 per barrel. Prices for some crude grades on the physical market increased even more sharply.
Diesel supplies have come under particular pressure. The IEA reported that global exports of diesel and gasoil fell by approximately 700,000 barrels per day in September compared with the same month a year earlier. Combined net exports of these products from Russia and Middle Eastern countries declined by more than 60%.
The agency linked the decline to disruptions at oil refineries, damage to energy infrastructure, and restrictions on key international transportation routes.
Wholesale diesel prices reached $200–220 per barrel in some regions in September. Although they fell somewhat in early October, they remained high.
Higher maritime freight rates, refining costs, and seasonal demand for diesel ahead of winter have added further pressure to petroleum product prices.
What does this mean for Tajikistan?
International oil prices are only one factor affecting fuel prices in Dushanbe. Import purchase prices, the availability of supplies, transportation costs, and importers’ existing stocks also influence retail prices.
For example, the increase in Russian diesel supplies to Tajikistan from approximately 16,000 tons in July to more than 56,000 tons in August coincided with a decline in prices at filling stations in the capital.
The IEA expects tight conditions in the global diesel market to persist into 2027, leaving countries heavily dependent on imports exposed to external risks.
However, global market trends alone cannot explain the latest price increases in Dushanbe. Determining their immediate causes would require up-to-date information on import prices, supply volumes, and delivery terms.
Where does Tajikistan import its fuel from?
Tajikistan remains heavily dependent on imported petroleum products, with Russia its main supplier. Iran has also begun supplying oil and petroleum products to the country.
According to foreign trade statistics, Tajikistan imported approximately 1.37 million tons of oil, petroleum products, liquefied gas, and related products worth a total of $1.13 billion in January–September 2026.
Russia supplied around 708,000 tons of petroleum products worth $628.9 million. It accounted for 73.2% of the value of imports in this product category.
Turkmenistan was the second-largest supplier, with 100,300 tons worth $117.4 million. Other suppliers included Uzbekistan (36,200 tons), Belarus (19,700 tons), Iran (15,600 tons), Kyrgyzstan (10,200 tons), and Kazakhstan (9,100 tons).
Kazakhstan was the main supplier of liquefied gas, providing 225,600 tons worth $153.8 million during the nine-month period. Russia supplied another 94,800 tons worth $64.6 million.
Iran began supplying oil and petroleum products to Tajikistan in late August, the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources previously told Asia-Plus. Customs statistics subsequently showed that 15,600 tons worth $14.7 million were imported from Iran in January–September.
Dushanbe has said it hopes eventually to receive up to 2.55 million tons of oil and fuel annually from Iran. The stated quantities include 2 million tons of crude oil, 300,000 tons of diesel, 150,000 tons of gasoline, and 100,000 tons of aviation fuel.
These figures represent Tajikistan’s stated needs, not confirmed delivery volumes.
Any expansion of imports from Iran will depend on fuel prices, transportation costs, transit arrangements through third countries, and the capacity of Tajikistan’s oil refineries.