BRAZIL · ELECTIONS · PREDICTION MARKETS
Key Facts
- —Prediction markets Kalshi: Flávio Bolsonaro by 0–3 points, 36%, up 15 points in a week, from 21% on 14 October (22 October, 9:30 a.m. ET).
- —Second market Polymarket: Flávio by under 4 points, 40.5%, up 1 point in a week.
- —Trigger No single trigger was reported; polls show a very close race.
- —Next Runoff on Sunday 25 October; polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4 p.m. ET).
- —Volume Kalshi: 15,452 contracts in 24 hours, thinly traded. Polymarket: about US$629,000.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 78.1% · Lula 21.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 22 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Traders on Kalshi now give a 36% chance that Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil’s runoff by 0 to 3 points, up from 21% on 14 October. That is a 15-point jump, but it comes from a thinly traded market.
It matters to US readers because Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy, and a razor-thin result would keep investors and politicians waiting. Polymarket, the larger exchange by volume, moved only 1 point on its matching band.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
34 national polls from 19 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
In Plain English
Runoff: a second vote between the top two candidates, because nobody won more than half of the valid votes on 4 October.
Margin of victory: how many percentage points the winner finishes ahead, as each platform defines it.
A 36% price: traders pay 36 cents for a contract that pays US$1 if that margin band is the result.
What Prediction Markets Say
Two exchanges list “margin of victory” markets for the runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, splits the result into bands of three points.
- Kalshi, Flávio by 3–6 points: 39%, unchanged in 24 hours.
- Kalshi, Flávio by 0–3 points: 36%, up 5 points in 24 hours and 15 points from 21% on 14 October.
- Kalshi, Lula by 0–3 points: 15%, down 5 points in 24 hours.
- Kalshi, Flávio by 6–9 points: 12%, unchanged.
Polymarket, a crypto-based exchange, uses wider bands. “Flávio by under 4 points” is 40.5% (up 1 point in 24 hours), “Flávio by 4–8 points” is 33.5% (down 2) and “Lula by under 4 points” is 19.5% (up 1).
Kalshi’s eight bands saw 15,452 contracts traded in 24 hours and 132,918 in all. That is thinly traded, so a few orders can move a price.
Polymarket’s margin market has traded about US$4.35 million in all, including about US$629,000 in the past 24 hours. On Polymarket’s main winner market, Flávio is at 78.3% and Lula at 21.5%.
Kalshi’s daily closing prices for the 0–3 band were 21% on 14 October, 31% on 17 October (after an intraday high of 62%), 34% on 18 and 19 October, and 30% on 20 and 21 October. The climb was therefore uneven, not a straight line.
Read on 22 October 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET. These are bets, not polls; live prices are on our Prediction Markets page.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
No single trigger was reported for the Kalshi move. It came during a week in which polls pointed to a very close race.
Poder360, a Brazilian political news site, compiled 16 runoff polls on 21 October. Flávio led in 15 of them, and Lula led in one (Vox Brasil).
- Datafolha (13–14 October): Flávio 51%, Lula 49%, margin of error 2 points.
- AtlasIntel (13–18 October): Flávio 51.1%, Lula 48.9%, margin of error 1 point.
- BTG/Nexus (16–18 October): Flávio 50.3%, Lula 49.7%, margin of error 2 points.
- PoderData/Aya (16–18 October): Flávio 52%, Lula 48%, margin of error 1.8 points.
Two of these four gaps, Datafolha’s and BTG/Nexus’s, sit inside the margin of error. All four are narrow, which is consistent with traders pricing a close finish.
In the first round on 4 October, Flávio won 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Nobody passed 50%, which is why the runoff is on Sunday 25 October.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil — Live Market Board
B3 · São Paulo
Oct 22, 2026 · 11:28
Ibovespa · benchmark
205,429.42
-0.52%
L 167,142day rangeH 168,310
+21.85% over 12 months
Market breadth · 15 names
47% advancing
7 ▲ advancing8 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
USD / BRL
5.16
+0.01%
EUR / BRL
5.95
+1.01%
Selic rate
14.00%
·
Brent crude
88.88
-0.03%
Iron ore
161.91
·
Sector heatmap · average move today
Materials
+2.35%
SUZB3
Mining
+1.16%
VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4
Industrials
+0.20%
WEGE3, RENT3
Financials
-0.10%
ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3
Energy
-0.12%
PETR4, PRIO3
Consumer Staples
-0.80%
ABEV3
Utilities
-1.38%
ENEV3
Consumer Disc.
-2.63%
AZZA3
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
IbovespaBrazil
205,429.42
-0.52%
S&P/BMV IPCMexico
70,249.54
+1.43%
S&P IPSAChile
10,894.41
-0.83%
S&P MERVALArgentina
3,017,221
—
MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,560.37
+1.07%
BVL S&P PerúPeru
59,870.67
-0.52%
Full instrument board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,429.42 | -0.52% | +21.85% | 206,495.23 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
Largest moves today
AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%
SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%
GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%
ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%
ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%
VALE3
72.97
+0.83%
ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%
IBOV
205,429.42
-0.52%
The session read
The Ibovespa eased 0.52%, with breadth negative — 7 of 15 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.
From The Rio Times
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What It Means for US Readers
A close finish could keep investors in Brazilian stocks, bonds and the real waiting for a clear result. A wider win would remove that doubt sooner.
Our runoff guide explains the vote, and our Brazil hub tracks the economy and politics around it.
Traders’ bets are not a poll, and the margin bands are narrow. Treat them as one signal next to the polling averages and, on the night, the official count published by the TSE.
What Is Not Known
It is not known what pushed the Kalshi band higher. It is also unclear whether the rise reflects new information or a few orders in a thin market.
We could not confirm exactly how each platform measures the margin, whether in valid votes or total votes. We also do not know how many voters are still undecided.
Official turnout and results will come only from the TSE after polls close on 25 October.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do prediction markets say about Brazil’s runoff margin?
Traders mostly expect a close win for Flávio Bolsonaro. On Kalshi, “Flávio by 0–3 points” trades at 36% and “3–6 points” at 39%. On Polymarket, “Flávio by under 4 points” is 40.5% (22 October, 9:30 a.m. ET).
How big was the move on Kalshi?
The “Flávio by 0–3 points” price rose from 21% on 14 October to 36% now, and 5 points in 24 hours. That market is thinly traded, with 15,452 contracts changing hands in a day.
Why did the odds move?
No single trigger was reported. The move came during a week of close polls, with Flávio numerically ahead in 15 of 16 surveys compiled by Poder360 on 21 October.
When does Brazil vote and when do polls close?
Brazil votes on Sunday 25 October 2026. Polling stations close at 5 p.m. Brasília time, which is 4 p.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
Are these prices forecasts?
No. They are real-money bets, not polls and not a forecast by this newsroom. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, and prices can reverse quickly when news arrives.
Sources: Poder360, compilation of runoff polls, 21 October 2026 (poder360.com.br) · Superior Electoral Court (TSE) first-round count, as reported by Portal de Prefeitura and Diario de Pernambuco · Voting hours: SBT News · Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 22 October 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET). More on our Latin America odds page.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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