BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 25 October, 12:07 a.m. ET · Source: Futura Inteligência
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Saturday 24 October, the Brazilian polling firm Futura Inteligência published a final runoff survey that shows a technical tie.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.1% of valid votes and Lula 49.9%, a gap of 0.2 points with a 2.2-point margin of error.
- The change Futura’s survey of 13 October had Flávio at 51.8% and Lula at 48.2% of valid votes, so the gap has narrowed since.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (25 October, 12:06 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 80% and Kalshi at 81% (Lula: 21% and 20%), as of 25 October, 12:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The survey does not say how undecided voters will behave, and polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília (4 p.m. ET).
A new poll shows Brazil’s runoff tied on the final weekend, with Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, on 50.1% and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 49.9% of valid votes. The Futura Inteligência survey, published on Saturday 24 October, puts the gap at 0.2 points, well inside its margin of error.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
45 national polls from 21 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October in the Brazil election 2026 runoff, which decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy. It matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington, and our Brazil election polls tracker lists every survey.
What the Futura Runoff Poll Found
Futura Inteligência interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone on 23 and 24 October, CNN Brasil reported. The survey has a margin of error of 2.2 points at a 95% confidence level and TSE registration BR-09726/2026.
Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.1% of valid votes and Lula 49.9%, a difference of 0.2 points, according to Exame. Exame calls the race a technical tie.
How Valid Votes and Technical Ties Work
Brazilian results are reported as valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the electoral court (TSE) will announce on election night.
A technical tie means the gap is smaller than the survey’s margin of error. With 2.2 points of error on each number, this poll cannot say who is ahead.
The Gap Has Narrowed Since 13 October
Futura’s survey of 13 October had Flávio at 51.8% and Lula at 48.2% of valid votes, Exame reported, and the 16 October survey had 50.8% to 49.2%, per Exame. The gap has shrunk from 3.6 points on 13 October to 0.2.
Other pollsters have shown a close race too, and you can compare them in our runoff poll tracker. One survey is a snapshot of two days of interviews, not a forecast.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can bring sharp price swings once results arrive on Sunday evening. Polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília, which is 4 p.m. ET.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will shape Brazil’s course with Washington for the next four years. A 0.2-point gap means neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.8% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 20.5% (25 October, 12:06 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$196.7 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.9% · Lula 20.5% (US$197 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 81% · Lula 20%
As of 25 October, 12:20 am ET (04:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The reports we reviewed do not agree on who commissioned the survey, so we do not name a sponsor. Raw vote shares including undecided and blank voters are also not confirmed across sources.
It is not known how undecided voters or those who stay home will decide the result on 25 October. A poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the outcome.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 50.1% to 49.9% of valid votes in the Futura Inteligência survey published on Saturday 24 October. The 0.2-point gap is a technical tie.
What is the margin of error?
The survey has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. It interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone on 23 and 24 October.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, and polls close at 5 p.m. in Brasília (4 p.m. ET). The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What is a technical tie in a poll?
It means the gap between candidates is smaller than the margin of error. The survey cannot say who is truly ahead.
How did Futura’s poll change since 13 October?
On 13 October, Futura had Flávio at 51.8% and Lula at 48.2% of valid votes. The gap has narrowed from 3.6 points to 0.2.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 24 October 2026; Exame, 24 October 2026; Estado de Minas, 24 October 2026; Exame, 13 October 2026; Exame, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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