ESPN analyst Greg McElroy believes Texas’ offensive problems run deeper than quarterback Arch Manning, and that view drove his pick for Saturday’s Ole Miss-Texas game, a matchup the No. 19 Longhorns can’t afford to lose with their College Football Playoff hopes slipping.
McElroy picked No. 7 Ole Miss to win 27-24 in Austin, pointing to the Rebels’ pass protection and red zone offense as the deciding factors against a Texas team that has lost consecutive games by three points.
Texas’ problems extend beyond Arch Manning
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian opened the door to a quarterback change after Saturday’s 27-24 loss to Florida. Asked whether his evaluation included Manning, Sarkisian replied, “Everything means everything.”
Texas is giving redshirt freshman KJ Lacey Jr. more first-team reps this week, according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, though Manning is still expected to start. Sarkisian said Monday he needs “a better version of Arch Manning” against the Rebels.
McElroy, who named the offensive line as Texas’ biggest problem after the Florida upset, kept his focus on the players around the former No. 1 recruit.
“Against Florida, he was 14 of 20 for 173. He lost a fumble that sealed the game. He was sacked five times,” McElroy said during his Always College Football podcast. “Texas allowed 17 sacks this season. That is tied for 111th.”
McElroy also faulted the Longhorns’ pass catchers and blockers, saying, “The receivers haven’t done a great job creating separation. The offensive line hasn’t done a great job holding up in protection.”
How will Texas pressure Trinidad Chambliss?
Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, who leads the nation with 10.5 sacks, suffered an ankle sprain against Florida and is reportedly expected to miss three to four weeks.
McElroy called his expectation that Simmons won’t play an assumption, but the injury shaped much of his pick.
“Sarkisian’s teams have a losing record, and not a close one, by the way, when they lose the sack battle by two or more,” McElroy said.
That record matters against Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for four touchdowns in last Saturday’s 31-3 rout of No. 13 Missouri. The Rebels rank fifth nationally in adjusted expected points added per play on offense, pairing explosive throws with steady chain-moving.
“He runs an offense that gains five yards or more on more than half of their plays. That’s top four in the country,” McElroy said.
Ole Miss’ red zone edge
McElroy still sees paths for the Longhorns. He said Ole Miss ranks 116th in pass plays of 20 or more yards allowed and has given up production to tight ends, and the Rebels allowed more than 153 rushing yards per game before holding Missouri to 39 yards on 26 carries.
Texas’ defense ranks third nationally in adjusted expected points added per play, but it has forced just five turnovers, so McElroy expects its stops to come near the goal line.
“Something has to give, and it’s the Rebels’ finish, which is the best in the sport, against the Longhorns’ goal-line stand, which has also been very, very good this year,” he said.
McElroy ultimately trusted the visitors’ offensive line over the Longhorns’ home crowd and defense.
“The Rebels, they don’t allow pressure,” McElroy said. “So, Chambliss has time to sit back there and scan the field. And Texas’ pass rush might be without their best edge defender.”
Ole Miss and Texas kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC.
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