Trump waives some Russia oil sanctions, easing pressure on India

NEW DELHI: US President Donald Trump has waived key Russia-related sanctions and tariffs just days before they were due to take effect, offering potential relief to major buyers of Russian oil, including India and China.

In an executive order issued late on Friday, Trump said it was in the US “national interests” to withhold some of the sanctions. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, signed by Trump last month, authorized him to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries importing Russian oil, with the aim of curbing Moscow’s economic might amid its war with Ukraine.

The measures were due to take effect on 18 October.

The move comes as India and the US negotiate a trade deal that is said to be in its final stages, while crude oil prices remain above $100 a barrel amid the prolonged conflict in West Asia. The price surge poses a risk to India, which imports about 90% of its annual oil requirement, with Russia accounting for a substantial share of those supplies.

Earlier this month, Trump announced a decision to buy diesel from Moscow, aimed at curbing rising prices in the US.

On Thursday, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said the first phase of the trade deal had been finalized and was being legally drafted. He expressed confidence that the agreement would be concluded and operationalised soon, but said India needed to secure an export advantage over its competitors in the US market.

The threat of US sanctions had introduced fresh uncertainty into the negotiations, leaving India unsure of the tariff concessions it could secure relative to competing countries that were not facing similar threats.

On Friday, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman expressed hope that the proposed trade deal would be concluded at the earliest, in the interest of both bilateral and global trade. Earlier this week, external affairs minister S. Jaishankar said the two sides were ironing out differences and moving towards a “landing point” in negotiations.

Separately, US ambassador to India Sergio Gor said earlier this week that negotiations were moving at an “incredible pace” and that the “big items are done”.

In February, the two countries agreed on a framework for the deal that reduced the punitive tariff on most Indian goods to 18% from 50%. The higher tariff had been imposed in August 2025.

The US remains India’s largest export market, accounting for $87 billion in goods exports in the fiscal year ended March 2026. In the first half of the current fiscal year, Indian exports to the US rose 11% from a year earlier to $50.8 billion, according to data from commerce ministry.

Although the tariff threat did not significantly affect Russian oil supplies, as refiners struggled to replace those barrels immediately, the waiver could ease supply constraints and moderate prices. This comes amid persistent tensions in West Asia involving the US and Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi militia. These tensions have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

For India, which relies heavily on imported crude, uncertainty over supplies and price volatility can have economy-wide consequences. Supply disruptions and geopolitical risks keep prices elevated, increasing costs for major importers such as India.

Global benchmark Brent crude traded at $72 a barrel in February, before the US-Iran war erupted, peaking at $130 a barrel in April. Prices are currently at $109.9 a barrel.

The country’s crude oil import bill stood at around $123 billion in fiscal year 2026 (FY26), according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. A sustained increase of $1 a barrel is estimated to raise the annual bill by ₹18,000 crore, estimates from Bank of Baroda show.

India has already imported crude worth $74.85 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year, equivalent to about 48% of its total import bill for FY26, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data showed.

A higher import bill could add to inflationary pressures if the increased costs are passed on to downstream products and consumers. It could also weigh on economic growth and widen pressure on the current account.

India’s retail inflation rose to a 23-month high of 5.54% in September. In October, the Reserve Bank of India raised its inflation projection for FY27 to 5.2%, from 5% in August, citing volatility in international oil prices, persistent supply-side pressures stemming from deficient south-west monsoon rainfall.

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