KUALA LUMPUR: Pakatan Harapan needs more than 30 per cent of the Malay vote to win most of the seats it contests in the Melaka election.
Melaka PH chairman Adly Zahari said Malay voter support is a key deciding factor, as many constituencies in the state have mixed voter demographics that will see tight contests.
He said PH also faces the challenge of identity politics, which could sway voting patterns, particularly in marginal seats.
"PH needs to secure more than 30 per cent of the Malay vote, and if we achieve that, we have a chance to win most seats.
"If we get around 20 per cent, we may only be able to add a few seats. However, if we fail to reach 20 per cent, PH risks losing some of the seats we currently hold," he said in an interview with Mingguan Malaysia.
Adly, who is also deputy defence minister, said PH has not discussed naming a poster boy for the state election, as the coalition's strategy focuses on ensuring every candidate works to win their respective state assembly seat.
He said having a poster boy provides no advantage if the candidate fails to win or defend the contested seat.
"Decisions regarding a poster boy have not been discussed at the state level or within the PH secretariat. I am also unsure whether the matter has been deliberated in the Presidential Council.
"In previous elections, a poster boy was usually only discussed in the Presidential Council, and only if raised. For now, there is no discussion on a poster boy.
"Everyone has their own views, and each party actually has its own poster boy. I think all parties have one, except for DAP, which I have not heard of having a poster boy," he said.
Adly said PH did not feature a poster boy during the Johor state election, while the then menteri besar served as the primary face of the coalition in the Negri Sembilan state election.
"The most important thing in facing an election is winning seats. Sometimes, as seen in the previous Melaka election, one poster boy was featured, but another individual was ultimately chosen.
"In Negri Sembilan, BN also had no official poster boy, though they had an individual seen as one. Yet in the end, someone else was chosen, as mentioned by the Umno president: what was ordered was different from what was received," he said.
Commenting on the challenge posed by Bersama, Adly said PH does not underestimate the party's ability to draw support, particularly among new voters.
He said several issues raised by Bersama align with PH's platform, potentially influencing PH supporters if internal discord arises.
"Looking at Johor, what matters most is that we remain united. If PH is divided, some PH voters will go to Bersama.
"Bersama mostly seeks votes among new voters. The number of new voters is relatively high, and we are competing for their support.
"We know Bersama's capabilities. The party is relatively new, but we have never viewed Bersama as a minor party," he said.
Adly said past election experience showed that even a single vote could determine victory, particularly in closely contested seats.
"Bersama may not win, but they can disrupt any contesting party's chances of victory.
"If we look at Pengkalan Batu in the last election, independent candidate Datuk Norhizam Hassan Baktee secured more than 1,000 votes, leading to a BN victory. That seat should have been a safe seat for PH. With Bersama, we must consider that factor," he said.
In the 2021 Melaka state election, Norhizam secured 1,218 votes in Pengkalan Batu, while BN candidate Datuk Kalsom Noordin won with a 131-vote majority after securing 4,839 votes against the PH candidate's 4,708 votes.
In the same election, BN won 21 of the 28 state seats, while PH won five and Perikatan Nasional took two.
Bersama has declared its intention to contest solo in the Melaka state election and announced candidates for several seats targeted by PH, including Pengkalan Batu, Ayer Keroh, Bukit Katil, Kesidang, and Kota Laksamana.
The Election Commission has set nomination day for the Melaka state election on Oct 31, with polling on Nov 14, 2026.
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