EL SALVADOR · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What is happening El Salvador’s goods exports are forecast to grow 7% in 2026, to about US$5.94 billion, far below the 20% growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole, in a trade outlook released on Thursday, 15 October.
- —Why it matters Latin American exports to the United States are projected to rise 24% this year, so El Salvador’s 7% leaves it among the slower exporters in a region-wide trade boom.
- —The numbers Exports are put at US$5.94 billion against US$5.55 billion in 2025, a gain of US$392 million, while imports reach US$18.13 billion, up nearly 9%, leaving a goods trade gap near US$12.2 billion.
- —Who is who The forecast comes from the United Nations commission that studies Latin American economies, led by Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, which publishes its International Trade Outlook once a year.
- —What to watch The open question is whether the 7% holds, because Salvadoran goods exports grew only 3.2% to US$4.53 billion in January to August, less than half the forecast pace.
- —What it means for you US exporters sell into a Salvadoran market that imports about US$18.1 billion of goods this year, growing faster than the country’s own exports, while US demand for Latin American goods is strong overall.
El Salvador’s goods exports are forecast to grow 7% in 2026 to US$5.94 billion, a UN regional report shows. That is far below the 20% forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean.
El Salvador exports are forecast to grow 7% in 2026, to US$5.94 billion from US$5.55 billion in 2025. The projection comes from the International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2026, launched on Thursday, 15 October.
The report is the annual study of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC, or Cepal in Spanish). Diario El Mundo, a Salvadoran daily, reported the country figures on Friday, 16 October.
For US readers, the report’s most relevant number is a 24% projected rise in Latin American exports to the United States. El Salvador’s overall 7% growth sits well below the regional 20% pace.
What the Cepal Report Says About El Salvador Exports
The report puts El Salvador at 7%, level with Costa Rica and well under the regional 20%. The regional rise is the largest since the 2021 post-pandemic rebound.
Across the region, export prices are forecast up 11% and export volumes up 9%. Twenty-eight of the 33 countries should see higher export values, with double-digit growth in 16.
Other Central American neighbours differ widely in the same chart. Guatemala and Honduras are at 13%, Nicaragua at 5% and Panama at minus 14%.
Salvadoran Figures Reported by Diario El Mundo
Diario El Mundo reports that El Salvador’s goods exports would reach US$5.942 billion in 2026, against US$5.550 billion in 2025. That is a gain of US$392 million.
The daily says this is 6.6% of Central America’s estimated US$88.935 billion in exports and ranks El Salvador 20th in the region. The commission’s own pages could not be opened to check these country figures, so they rest on El Mundo alone.
El Salvador Imports Are Growing Faster Than Exports
El Mundo reports goods imports of more than US$18.134 billion in 2026, up US$1.476 billion from US$16.658 billion in 2025. The daily puts that rise at 8.8%, faster than the 7% forecast for exports.
On those figures, the goods trade gap would be about US$12.2 billion, a simple subtraction. Regionally, the report forecasts imports up 16% in value, on stronger consumption and demand for inputs and capital goods.
Central Bank Data Show a Slower Start
Central bank (BCR) data show goods exports of US$4.53 billion in January to August, up 3.2%. Estrategia & Negocios reported on 25 September that growth had slowed from 4.4% through July.
The United States, the main market, took US$1.48 billion, up 2.4%, about a third of the total. Textiles and apparel, sugar, coffee and electrical goods lead the export basket, with coffee growing at double-digit rates.
What the UN Commission Says About the Outlook
Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs said the region faces significant challenges in an uncertain geopolitical landscape. He added that competition for critical minerals and new environmental demands are reshaping value chains and market access.
For context, see earlier coverage of El Salvador exports and remittances and the EMFI growth forecast. The same report lifts Mexico’s exports 26%.
What It Means for US Readers
US exporters sell into a Salvadoran market that, on El Mundo’s figures, imports about US$18.1 billion of goods in 2026. Import growth of nearly 9% outpaces export growth of 7%.
Across the region, the 24% forecast rise in exports to the United States points to strong US demand for Latin American goods. El Salvador’s 7% is slower than most of the region, and its own US shipments rose just 2.4% through August.
What Is Not Known
The US$ country figures come from Diario El Mundo only, and the commission’s own pages could not be opened to confirm them. The 7% for El Salvador is repeated in El Mundo and in regional reports on the outlook.
The commission’s forecast for Salvadoran shipments to the United States is not known, nor is any GDP or remittance forecast. The BCR figures run only to August, so the full-year result is not yet known.
El Mundo also quotes the report as putting Salvadoran import growth at 17%, which conflicts with its own 8.8%. That figure and its first-half trade numbers are left out here, and the forecasts may be revised.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is El Salvador’s export forecast for 2026?
Goods exports are forecast to grow 7% in 2026, to US$5.94 billion. The projection is in a UN regional trade outlook launched on Thursday, 15 October.
How does that compare with Latin America?
The region’s goods exports are forecast to grow 20%, the largest rise since 2021. El Salvador’s 7% is well below that pace.
Are exports to the United States growing?
Regional shipments to the United States are projected to rise 24% in value in 2026. For El Salvador alone, BCR data show US shipments up 2.4% to US$1.48 billion in January to August.
What are El Salvador’s projected imports?
Diario El Mundo reports goods imports of more than US$18.13 billion, up nearly 9% from US$16.66 billion in 2025. That implies a goods trade gap near US$12.2 billion.
Who published the forecast?
The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean published it in its annual trade outlook. Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs leads the commission.
Sources: ECLAC press release, 15 October 2026; Diario El Mundo, 16 October 2026; Estrategia & Negocios on BCR data, 25 September 2026; La Tribuna, 15 October 2026 (accessed 20 October 2026).