Although BTC is already down by several grand since its local peak, the real trouble could be around the corner as reports emerged hours ago that US President Donald Trump is preparing a fresh wave of attacks against Iran during the weekend.
The US stock market also plummeted again on Friday, especially the Nasdaq 100, which, according to the analysts at the Kobeissi Letter, is close to a technical correction.
Macro Pressure Builds
The initial reports claimed that the POTUS has asked Iran for permission to strike its Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site without retaliation, but the authorities in the Middle Eastern country rejected the request. The claims come from IRIB state media correspondent Morteza Ghoroghi, who said: “Trump’s statements today point to war within the next 24 hours.” He also suggested that Iran’s military forces are “in a state of complete readiness.”
Shortly after, new reports indicated that Trump went to Mar-A-Lago for the first time since May 1, which is the same location where he started the war against Iran on February 28. Oil prices responded with an immediate uptick. Brent crude oil jumped from under $106 to a monthly peak of $110.
BREAKING: Brent crude oil surges to nearly $110, its highest level since September 15, as Iran places its armed forces on the highest alert for 72 hours and mobile bomb shelters being rapidly deployed in Tel Aviv.
US oil is now at $100. https://t.co/WKJ45cFVtF
— The Strait Report (@StraitReport) October 17, 2026
Stock Market Pressure
The other macro pressure on BTC could come from the overall stock market state. Earlier this week, the major KOSPI and Nikkei crash led to a correction in the crypto market as well. Now, US equities are under pressure, with the S&P 500 down by 2% last week.
The Nasdaq 100 had its biggest weekly decline since April 2025, dumping by 3% on Friday alone. The tech sector has erased over $3 trillion (more than the entire crypto market) in the past 10 days. The Kobeissi Letter argued that the Nasdaq 100 is just 2.5% away from “entering a technical correction.”
There it is folks.
The Nasdaq 100 is now down -3% on the day and on track for its biggest weekly decline since April 2025.
US tech stocks have erased over -$3 trillion in market cap in just 10 days.
This puts the Nasdaq 100 just ~2.5% away from entering a technical correction.
As outlined below, we are in a “Bear-Bull Market.”
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 16, 2026
These corrections are not isolated. The Indonesian stock market recently experienced its worst daily dump in 28 years, plunging by over 11%.
Will BTC Fall Below $80K?
The primary cryptocurrency dipped below the key $80,000 support earlier this week for the first time in a month but managed to rebound above that level immediately. However, the growing pressure explained above could lead to another substantial leg down, especially if the US indeed strikes Iran over the weekend.
Bitcoin didn’t respond immediately to the major developments on previous weekends, but waited until Sunday evening and Monday morning when traditional financial markets started to open. For now, the asset remains at $81,500, down by 1.5% weekly and by over 6% from its local top marked a few weeks ago.
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