Q? Do you think the Trump–Putin “deal” will see diesel and global energy prices fall?
Answer - No. I don’t see Russia as having much spare diesel capacity to export. Recent Ukrainian deep-strike drone attacks have been successful, forcing shortages at home and forcing the Russian authorities to impose an export ban. I do not expect Ukraine’s deep-strike drone attacks to stop, as they are having an effect. Why would Ukraine stop?
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Q? So what is Trump trying to achieve?
Answer - I assume that someone in the US administration understands the Russian economy and has told Trump my answer to the first point above. If that is the case, then I think Trump’s messaging around the Russian diesel deal is more to create a scapegoat for the fact that energy prices have remained elevated after Trump’s Iran war. He is seeking to portray Zelensky as the recalcitrant party and responsible for higher global energy prices - even though the evidence still suggests that the biggest driver of higher global energy prices is the Iran war, not the war in Ukraine. Clearly, Trump is trying to change the pitch around midterms, which look increasingly difficult for Trump and the GOP.
Q? Is there an actual energy deal behind the scenes?
Answer - No. Neither the Russian nor Ukrainian side seems to know of any behind-the-scenes deal. One is tempted to think that Trump is making this up as he goes along. Trump seems to think that just by him saying something makes it happen. That’s not the case with Putin and Zelensky. I think Putin and Zelensky have other interests and drivers.
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Q? Will Putin accept an energy deal?
Answer - I think Putin has zero interest in accepting any energy deal right now. His agenda will be focused on the French elections in May 2027, and he will be eager to escalate until then and through the winter. The aim will be to cripple the Ukrainian economy and increase the costs to Europe of supporting Ukraine, to the point that in mid 2027 Europe will have to decide whether and how it continues to support Ukraine.
Putin will offer Trump warm words but deliver nothing. He will take any concessions from Trump, and expect and demand more. The more he holds out for more, the weaker Trump and the Western alliance look. He likely sees Trump as increasingly desperate and incoherent, and he will exploit this by stringing Trump along and, in doing so, further pushing Europe away from the U.S.
Q? Will Putin test NATO Article 5?
Answer - Very likely; actually, he is already doing that. The question is how far he will go in risking a kinetic attack on NATO. As the US backstop for Europe is threadbare, few people trust that Trump would commit US forces to defend Europe. The question is whether this an opportunity that Putin can resist - to test, and diminish NATO’s article 5, while the opportunity is there. Expect more Russian cyberattacks, drone strikes, attacks on European critical infrastructure, assassination attempts against Western industrials, and election meddling, et al.
Q? Will Ukraine agree to an energy deal?
Answer - Only if Russia agrees, which it is unlikely to do. With that in mind, Ukraine has an interest in continuing to hit Russian energy sector assets - in order to bring the war to Russia. And increasingly it has the autonomous capability to do so.
Q? Will Europe pull the plug on support for Ukraine, if demanded by Trump as the price for a Ukraine peace deal?
Answer - Not for a bad deal. Europe increasingly realizes that a) Russia is an existential threat; b) the US backstop to Europe is no longer there; c) European security depends on Ukraine surviving as long as possible against Russia to allow time for Europe to develop an independent defense capability from the US. When push comes to shove, Europe will choose Ukraine over the US.
See the original in the author’s @tashecon blog here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.