Ukraine has depleted its stocks of US-made Patriot interceptor missiles, stripping it of one of the very few tools capable of deterring Russian ballistic missiles, a source familiar with the situation said on Thursday, Oct. 15.
According to CNN’s exclusive, the shortfall was particularly felt during Russia’s latest large-scale attack overnight into Wednesday, Oct. 14, when most incoming ballistic missiles reached their targets. The strike hit three power plants in Kyiv and energy facilities in Kharkiv, killing four people and injuring at least 25 in the capital.
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“Almost all the ballistic missiles from the last strike were not intercepted due to lack of the [interceptor] missiles,” the source, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down four Russian ballistic missiles during that attack, which CNN said suggests Ukraine fired its last remaining Patriots.
Lockheed Martin in ‘deep’ production
Patriot interceptors are currently in short supply worldwide. Many of the countries have already depleted their stocks or are seeking to rebuild them amid the war in Iran and Russia’s escalating rhetoric towards Europe.
On July 20, Lockheed Martin introduced the PAC-3 ACE, a Patriot interceptor designed to deter air and missile threats at less than half the cost of the PAC-3 MSE variant. Initial production was expected to start within 36 months.
Current PAC-3 interceptors cost roughly $4 million per missile, and their high cost is compounded by the rate at which they are expended during sustained operations.
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The launch came as Ukraine already faced a critical shortage of ballistic missile defense.
For the country, the PAC-3 is currently among the very few weapons capable of intercepting Russia’s Iskander-M, a ballistic missile carrying a half-ton warhead strong enough to tear down a quarter to half of a typical apartment block.
Ukraine’s reliance on the weapons deliveries became clear by July, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) reportedly exhausted its stocks during two Russian barrages; on July 1-2 Russia launched 24 ballistic missiles, four of which were intercepted, and on July 5-6, Russia launched 23 ballistic missiles, none of which were intercepted.
Around the same time, Russia launched four Zircons on July 1-2 and six on July 5-6, none of which were intercepted either.
As of Oct. 1, Lockheed Martin is in advanced talks over PAC-3 production outside the US as demand triples.
Dan Tenney, the company’s senior vice president for global business development and strategy, told Kyiv Post that the company is investing up to $9 billion through 2030 to expand missile production, strengthen supply chains and bring new factories online.
Ukraine urges partners to boost deliveries amid US rift
For much of this year, Ukraine has repeatedly appealed to its Western allies for faster deliveries of Patriot interceptors.
The weapons systems were on the agenda again on Thursday, Oct. 15, during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels, where the Ukrainian president urged its allies for steady arms deliveries as Russia continues its terror on civilian infrastructure nationwide.
On Sept. 8, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Germany would deliver PAC-2 missiles to Ukraine from it’s own Bundeswehr stocks, while Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara said contracts are being signed with partners for about 1,000 Patriot missiles.
During his meeting with Zelensky on the sidelines of the 81st United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York late September, US President Donald Trump had made a “final decision” to grant Ukraine the licenses to produce Patriot missiles domestically.
Trump initially announced the license transfer during the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey early July, but later backtracked on the promises, saying Washington must exercise caution when sharing sensitive military technology.
On Sept. 5-6, senior US envoys from Trump’s administration – Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff – traveled to Moscow in an effort to broker an end to the war, where they held three hours of discussion with Russian President Vladimir Putin followed by an informal dinner. A day later, they headed to Kyiv for the first time during their tenure.
Although all three sides described the meeting as substantive and positive, no breakthrough was reached.
The diplomatic efforts appeared to be gaining momentum, until last week, when Kyiv-Washington ties took a sour turn.
While the Ukrainian delegation was in Miami hoping to negotiate an end to Russia’s aggression, Trump abruptly announced that he signed a diesel deal with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly after, the US Treasury Department authorized the sale and import of Russian diesel fuel through April 7, 2027.
Trump then declared an immediate energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv on Oct. 11 on Truth Social media, claiming both sides had agreed.
Although neither strikes formally agreed and Ukrainian authorities appeared to find out about the truce by the news circulating online, Kyiv had refrained from striking Russia’s power infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Russia increased its strikes significantly, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying on Oct. 14 that the truce was never defined, so Russia cannot be accused of breaking it.
Zelensky has since lifted Ukraine’s self-imposed pause on those strikes. “The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We’re done,” he told The Financial Times.
Around the same time, overnight on Oct. 13-14 the US aerospace giant Starlink and its owner Elon Musk tweaked parameters and limited terminals above 160 kilometers per hour (roughly 100 miles per hour), disrupting Kyiv’s drone operations.
The move crippled Ukraine’s key mid-range strike drones, used in strikes on Russian logistics, and interceptor drones used against Russian jet-powered Shahed drones.
“It is clear that the Russians are trying to exploit problems with Starlink’s operation in Ukraine, as interceptor drones rely significantly on this connection,” Zelensky said after meeting with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham in London.
Musk’s response was that the US military – including Trump himself – decides speed limits on Ukraine’s military Starshield terminals, not SpaceX.
Around the same time on Oct. 14, US intelligence officials told Ukraine’s embassy in Washington that information sharing would stop immediately if Kyiv kept striking Russian energy targets.
Zelensky confirmed the warning reached the military rather than him directly. “They said this to my generals, not to me.”
Trump, for his part, insisted cooperation continues and denied that the US cut off intelligence, although Ukrainian forces received no partner warnings of Russian ballistic missile launches toward Kyiv on two consecutive nights at the beginning of the week.