Old-school football fans are in for a treat this Sunday. The Chicago Bears are set to take on the Atlanta Falcons on the road in a matchup of the No. 1 and No. 2 NFL rushing offenses, respectively, and both teams are hoping to rebound from brutal Week 5 losses. The Falcons choked away an opportunity to upset the Baltimore Ravens in overtime while the Bears got crushed in a disastrous loss to the Green Bay Packers.
While the Bears are a game ahead of the Falcons in the standings, it could be argued that they're in greater need of a win. The NFC North remains the toughest division in football, with each team currently occupying a playoff spot. The Falcons should be able to make up ground later in the season in a wide-open NFC South, but the Bears do not have that luxury, and that may create a sense of urgency.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the four matchups between these two teams that should decide whether the Bears can get back in the win column or fall even further behind their division rivals.
1. Bears' defensive line vs Bijan Robinson
Superstar running back Bijan Robinson is by far the biggest problem that the Bears must fear in Week 6. He leads all running backs with 580 rushing yards (which is more than 18 teams have overall) and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, the third-best mark for running backs. Meanwhile, the Bears are facing personnel problems along their defensive line. Dayo Odeyingbo's injury status for Week 6 remains uncertain while Montez Sweat has been suspended for two games.
So how can the Bears possibly hope to win this matchup? That depends on your definition of 'win'. If you think the Bears can hold him to less than four yards per carry and keep him out of the endzone, you're dreaming. However, the Falcons have lost every game in which Robinson has averaged 5.1 yards per carry or less. That's an attainable goal for this defense and would go a long way towards a Week 6 victory.
2. Bears' offensive line vs Gervon Dexter Sr.
It's not every day that a player gets a revenge game opportunity less than two months after being traded, but that's what we have in Week 6. The Bears traded Gevon Dexter Sr. to the Falcons two weeks before the season opener, and thus far he has transformed that defensive line into a fearsome front. This, of course, calls into question why general manager Ryan Poles traded Dexter in the first place.
I wouldn't go so far as to say that Dexter left the Bears on bad terms. He did post a heartfelt goodbye to the Bears on social media, after all. Nevertheless, I'm sure he's motivated to show his former bosses what they've been missing out on since the trade. Guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, along with center Garrett Bradbury, need to be ready for the best version of their former teammate.
3. Jaylon Johnson vs Drake London
Jaylon Johnson remains the Bears' top boundary cornerback for now, which means he'll likely be called on to defend Atlanta's star receiver Drake London. This is going to be arguably his toughest test yet this season, which has already gone off the rails. Johnson is Chicago's lowest ranked cornerback by Pro Football Network, earning just a 56.8 impact grade.
If Johnson can get his mojo back and hold London to a pedestrian outing, that would go a long way towards delivering a road win for the Bears. But if he continues to spiral, expect the Falcons to put up points in bunches.
4. Caleb Williams vs Michael Penix Jr.
As of this writing, we still don't have confirmation on Caleb Williams' status, but back-to-back days as a full participant in practice signal that he's on the path to a Week 6 return, and not a moment too soon. The NFL world is eager to see this duel of top 2024 NFL draft picks. Williams, of course, went first-overall to the Bears while the Falcons shocked everyone by drafting Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick. This is their first meeting in the NFL, and both quarterbacks have started the season on the right foot.
Williams led the Bears to a stunning 59-point outing in a thrilling Week 1 win over the Carolina Panthers, but his hamstring injury in Week 2 has sidelined him for the the last three weeks. As for Penix, he returned from a season-ending injury last year in Week 3 and kicked Atlanta's offense into overdrive. He's averaging a 74.2 QBR so far this year and looks to finally be the quarterback the Falcons expected to get when they picked him.
Out of all the Bears-Falcons matchups, this is the most critical one for Chicago. If Williams can immediately get right back to the kind of form we saw in Week 1, then he can go blow-for-blow with any offense in the world. Bijan Robinson could run for 300 yards and four touchdowns and the Bears could still win. However, if Williams remains limited by his injury, or if he is ultimately ruled out, then Penix is almost certain to be the best quarterback on the field on Sunday.
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