By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter
PHILIPPINE PORTS could incur as much as $70.2 billion in annual losses from climate-related hazards by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario, the highest loss estimate in Southeast Asian economies, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
In its Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2026: Coastal Risks on the Rise—Actions for a Resilient Future, the ADB warned that increasingly severe coastal flooding, tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events could damage port infrastructure, disrupt maritime trade and interrupt port operations.
The projected annual damage to Philippine ports would be equivalent to 0.44% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 under the high-emissions scenario.
Indonesia was projected to sustain annual losses of $54.3 billion, Vietnam $36.2 billion, Malaysia $35.6 billion, Thailand $32.6 billion, Myanmar $12.4 billion and Cambodia $8.23 billion.
Under a moderate-emissions scenario, annual port-related losses in the Philippines could hit $20.6 billion by 2100, still the highest among Southeast Asian economies covered by the report, and equivalent to 0.19% of GDP.
“By 2100 under a moderate-emissions scenario, the largest port losses in absolute terms fall on the region’s biggest economies, but relative to the size of the economy, the burden is heaviest on small island developing states,” the ADB said.
The report’s estimates cover direct physical damage to port infrastructure, including rebuilding and repair costs, revenue losses from operational downtime, and disruptions to maritime trade.
The assessment considered three climate-related threats: tropical-cyclone winds; coastal, river and rainfall-induced flooding; and other marine extremes, including powerful waves, overtopping, heat and non-cyclonic winds.
The ADB warned that climate-related port disruptions could have broader economic consequences, affecting supply chains and economic activities beyond coastal areas.
“Annually, about $63 billion of trade worldwide is at risk from port disruptions,” the bank found, noting that around 70% of this risk, equivalent to $40 billion to $45 billion annually, is concentrated in Asia and the Pacific.
Under current conditions, climate-related damage to transport infrastructure across the region is estimated at between $12 billion and $54 billion annually, accounting for about 65% of the global total, the ADB said.
“Across every subregion, transport assets are the critical infrastructure most exposed to coastal flooding,” the ADB said. “Because these networks link farms to markets, fishers to buyers, and households to health services and food supplies, their disruption cascades directly into livelihoods, nutrition, and well- being.”
To address rising coastal risks, ADB estimated that annual investments of $9 billion to $19 billion in coastal flood protection across its developing member countries could help avert $178 billion to $360 billion in damage each year.
At the regional level, the lender said “the benefits of adaptation may therefore be almost 20 times greater than investment costs.”