British military personnel, planes and high-profile businesses could be among targets for Iran-backed militants if the latest conflict in the Middle East continues to spiral.
UK support for Saudi Arabia in its war against the Houthis rebels – who have been fighting against Yemen’s Riyadh-backed regime for years – could put regional British assets in danger and risks dragging the country further into the conflict, security experts believe.
The Ministry of Defence announced this week that it was increasing military support for Riyadh, including deploying RAF Typhoons to shoot down Houthi drones and missiles fired at the kingdom, and dispatching a transport plane and military advisers to support the Saudi war effort. The UK was already providing air defence equipment and air-to-air refuelling services for Saudi warplanes.
The Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, said the “defensive” mission was necessary to support an important ally, to defend energy supplies and regional security, and for the protection of civilians following deadly Houthi strikes on Saudi airports and other critical infrastructure. Saudi strikes targeting the militant group have also caused civilian casualties, according to human rights groups.
British assets could be in the crosshairs
The mission could still draw reprisals against British assets from the Iran-backed militants despite its narrow scope. Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti warned last month that any new party to the war would become a target.
“We advise Britain to think carefully… Should [it] become involved in the aggression against Yemen in any form, it will bear the consequences, as Yemen will respond in a manner commensurate with the scale and nature of that involvement,” he said.
Any expansion of the UK role in the war could put British assets in the crosshairs, according to Adam Barron, a Yemen and Gulf specialist at the New America Foundation think-tank.
“There is a question of how the Houthis interpret this support [for Saudi Arabia], if they view it as something that renders the UK a belligerent, and thus puts UK assets in the Red Sea and Gulf region at risk of being targeted in retaliation,” he said.
The most probable targets for retaliation include British shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which has been used as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz since Iran blocked the key waterway, and the wider Red Sea, Barron believes.
The Houthis have maintained intermittent sea blockades by firing on commercial ships since 2023, which have cost the shipping industry billions of pounds through disruption and higher insurance premiums.
Ken Katzman, a former CIA official and now a Middle East analyst at the Soufan Centre think-tank, suggested other British sites in the region could come under fire.
“The Houthis are showing a lot of resilience with their ability to to store missiles out of harm’s way and continue to launch them at will,” he said. “I would assume British embassies are at risk, and potentially high-profile British businesses.”
The danger to troops at bases
The group possesses long-range missiles and drones that it has used to devastating effect against Saudi infrastructure, including oil fields and airports, as well as Iranian-made anti-ship missiles. The militants have also acquired formidable air defences used to claim several shootdowns of Saudi aircraft, including an unconfirmed strike on a UK-made Typhoon.
British pilots are expected to remain inside Saudi airspace. However, last month an Italian F-2000 Eurofighter aircraft was hit on the ground at Saudi Arabia’s Taif airbase. Earlier this year US personnel were injured and American aircraft damaged in Iranian strikes at other Saudi bases. The attacks highlight the potential danger to British planes and troops stationed inside the country.
Babak Taghvaee, an author and historian specialising on the militaries of Iran and its allies, said: “British aircraft and personnel operating in Saudi Arabia would face a genuine risk from Houthi missile and drone attacks….Aircraft can be vulnerable on the ground even when their airborne missions are strictly defensive.”
The Houthis fought a seven-year war against Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government that ended in 2022, before flaring again this year following the US-Israeli war with Iran. This time, the Saudi-led coalition said its goal was to “eliminate” the militant group, while the Houthis aspire to take control of Yemen from its internationally recognised government.
More than 1,000 Yemenis have been killed during the recent fighting with at least 21 deaths in Saudi Arabia, according to local authorities. At least 230,000 Yemenis have been displaced, Doctors Without Borders reported on Wednesday.
The US State Department has ordered non-emergency US government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia as the conflict escalates. A spokesperson warned: “The hostilities have the potential to escalate rapidly.”
Saudi Arabia is likely to press for the UK to become more involved in the conflict, experts believe, having also tapped allies including Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the US for help against the Houthis.
Donald Trump reportedly rejected a recent request from the kingdom to join strikes against the group, having launched a bombing campaign against it last year with British support. Operation Rough Rider ended inconclusively.
Dina Esfandiary, a Gulf expert at Bloomberg Economics, said Saudi officials had “impressed upon [allies] how important the war is and what a massive impact it is going to have on their economic wellbeing…and ability to export energy”, adding that Riyadh considered the Houthis a “global problem”.
Saudi leaders “100 per cent want everyone more involved. They need all the help they can get”, said Esfandiary. Riyadh is pushing for allies to play offensive as well as defensive roles, she added.
Taghvaee noted the potential for “mission creep” if the UK forces suffered losses. “If British aircraft were damaged or British personnel killed, London could face pressure to move beyond interception and authorise strikes against the forces responsible. A deployment initially intended to protect Saudi infrastructure could consequently expand into a broader campaign.”
The Saudis may have leverage over the UK as a supplier of energy during a global fuel crisis, and as a leading buyer of British arms.
The British government maintains that energy deals are not a factor in the expansion of support for Saudi Arabia, and insists the mission will remain defensive. Streeting reiterated the UK position that “there is no long-term military solution to the conflict” and urged a return to diplomacy.
However, with both sides of the conflict appearing set on further escalation, their allies risk being dragged along with it.