Serbia’s campaigning ended on Thursday, 22 October, and the legal silence period began ahead of a parliamentary election that pits the ruling list against a student-led challenger. Our running coverage sits in the Serbia Election 2026 hub.
Key Facts
- What: Serbia votes in a snap parliamentary election on Sunday, 25 October 2026.
- When: Polls close at 20:00 Central European Time, which is 15:00 Eastern Time.
- Latest poll: Ipsos, for the ruling list: United Serbia 47.4%, Student List 40.0%.
- Electorate: 6,450,523 registered voters choose 250 seats; 126 make a majority.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) prices an SNS-led win at 73% and a Student List win at 29%, as of 1:56 p.m. ET on 24 October.
Campaign Ends With Rival Rallies
Campaigning ended on Thursday, 22 October, and the legal silence period followed. The Student List held its final rally at Slavija Square in Belgrade, where Al Jazeera reported tens of thousands of people.
Aleksandar Vučić held a rival rally the same day at a sports hall across town. Polling stations open at 07:00 on Sunday and close at 20:00 Central European Time.
Polls Point in Different Directions
The newest poll is an Ipsos survey of 3,624 people, taken on 20–22 October for the ruling list. It put Vučić’s United Serbia list at 47.4% and the Student List at 40.0%, with the Socialist Party list of Ivica Dačić at 3.2%.
An NSPM telephone poll of 1,050 people, taken between 25 September and 5 October, had the Student List ahead among decided voters at 44.5% against 42.7%. Its fieldwork ended almost three weeks before the vote.
The PolitPro average on 24 October showed the ruling list at 46.8% and the Student List at 40.6%. Because the Ipsos poll was commissioned by the ruling list, the two camps’ numbers are not directly comparable.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC, priced an SNS-led win at 73% and a Student List win at 29% at 1:56 p.m. ET on 24 October, with 23,488 contracts traded. The two prices add up to more than 100% because each side is quoted separately.
Polymarket put Vučić’s list at 70.0% to win, with about US$4.33 million traded. Its turnout market favoured the 62–66% band at 43.5%, ahead of 66–70% at 32.5%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Two Camps, One Contest
The ruling list is led by Aleksandar Vučić, who resigned as president on 27 September and is seeking to become prime minister. The Student List grew out of the university movement behind nearly two years of anti-corruption protests.
Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist and professor at the University of Novi Sad, heads its list of 250 candidates. He is not described as the movement’s formal leader and would not automatically become prime minister.
The protests began after the concrete canopy of Novi Sad railway station collapsed in November 2024 and killed 16 people. The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has governed since 2012, and this is widely portrayed as its most serious challenge since.
What It Means for US Readers
Serbia is a test of whether a long-dominant party can lose to a youth-led movement with no single leader. The outcome will show how far public anger over the Novi Sad disaster has reshaped Serbian politics.
Traders can follow the odds on Kalshi and Polymarket as the count comes in. Official results come from the Republic Electoral Commission after polls close.
What Is Not Known
Which list will finish first is unresolved, because the polls and the markets lean toward the ruling list while one poll favours the students. Whether either side can reach 126 of the 250 seats without a coalition is also unknown.
Final turnout is unknown, and the market range is only a bet, not a forecast. No official result exists until counting begins after the 20:00 close.
Sources
- Republic Electoral Commission (RIK)
- N1: voter count
- PolitPro polling average
- Kalshi: Serbian election
- Polymarket: Serbia winner
- Al Jazeera: final rally
Keep Reading
- Serbia Election 2026 hub
- Serbia Final Polls Split Before Sunday Vote
- Serbia Sets 6.45 Million Voters for Sunday
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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Frequently Asked Questions
When is Serbia’s parliamentary election?
Serbia votes on Sunday, 25 October 2026. Polling stations close at 20:00 Central European Time, which is 15:00 Eastern Time in the United States.
Who are the main contenders?
The ruling list is led by Aleksandar Vučić, who resigned as president on 27 September and is seeking to become prime minister. The Student List, born from the anti-corruption protests, is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanović.
What do the latest polls show?
An Ipsos poll for the ruling list put it at 47.4% and the Student List at 40.0%. An older NSPM telephone poll had the Student List narrowly ahead among decided voters, 44.5% to 42.7%.
What do prediction markets say?
Kalshi, regulated in the US by the CFTC, priced an SNS-led win at 73% and a Student List win at 29% at 1:56 p.m. ET on 24 October. Polymarket put Vučić’s list at 70.0%.
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