From Transit to Trade: Economic Opportunity After Avaza

The Astana Times provides news and information from Kazakhstan and around the world.

The eighth Consultative Meeting in Avaza, Turkmenistan, on Oct. 8 was the first regular summit since Azerbaijan became a full participant in the format in November 2025. It came in a year when the five Central Asian states and Azerbaijan mark the 35th anniversary of their independence. The six countries now have an opportunity to use this wider forum to build economic relationships that connect their producers and markets as closely as their transport routes.

Azerbaijan’s inclusion in the consultative format reflects the deep historical and cultural ties that have long connected the country with Central Asia. While the geographical boundaries of Central Asia remain unchanged, the expanded format creates new opportunities for political and economic cooperation across the Caspian. Its flexible nature allows governments to pursue projects that serve shared interests while preserving their sovereignty and independence.

At Avaza, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed raising intraregional trade from about $13 billion in 2025 to at least $20 billion. Reaching that target will require greater attention to production and supply chains. More cargo moving through Central Asia does not automatically mean more goods being produced, processed or traded within the region. The challenge is to ensure that growing transit flows translate into stronger economic ties among the participating countries. Transport investment can support this growth when it helps local firms buy inputs from neighboring countries, reach new customers and invest across borders.

Together, Central Asia and Azerbaijan have more than 95.5 million people and an estimated combined GDP exceeding $645 billion. This is a substantial economic base for investments serving several national markets. Yet the potential of this market depends on how easily businesses can operate across borders. Simplifying customs procedures, reducing administrative barriers and making transport costs and delivery times more predictable would encourage companies to plan production and investment beyond their domestic markets.

None of the six countries has direct access to the open ocean, making reliable connections to international markets especially important. The Middle Corridor already links Chinese and European markets through Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s participation gives governments on both shores of the Caspian a regular opportunity to coordinate rail, port and shipping investment. Closer coordination could help address the gaps between national transport systems that affect the reliability of the entire route.

The World Bank estimates that, with infrastructure investment and reforms to improve transport efficiency, Middle Corridor volumes could quadruple by 2040 compared with 2023, while travel times could fall by two-thirds. The real measure of infrastructure investment, however, is not simply the capacity of individual railways or ports, but the reliability of the journey from producer to customer. A railway upgrade delivers greater economic value when cargo can move through the next port and border crossing without an avoidable wait. Improving connections between existing facilities is therefore as important as building new ones.

Tokayev also proposed that experts examine how the Middle Corridor could connect with TRIPP, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. An additional connection through the South Caucasus could widen Central Asian exporters’ options for reaching European markets. Its commercial value would depend on freight rates, transit arrangements and reliable onward connections. Assessing these factors at the expert level would help determine how the proposed link could complement existing transport networks and expand opportunities for regional trade.

Cooperation across the Caspian is also expanding beyond physical transport infrastructure. Kazakhtelecom and AzerTelecom have laid a 380-kilometer fiber-optic cable between Aktau and Sumgayit, with the new connection expected to become operational in 2026. This additional data route between Europe and Asia could support digital services and businesses that depend on reliable international communications. It also demonstrates how cooperation between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan can create shared economic infrastructure in sectors other than freight transportation. 

Another promising area is passenger connectivity. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are working to restore passenger ferry services between Kuryk and Baku, which could support joint Caspian tourism routes and allow visitors to combine destinations on both shores in one trip. Regular crossings would give hotels, tour operators and coastal communities access to a wider market, extending the benefits of regional connectivity beyond cargo transportation.

Stronger economic coordination could also improve the participating countries’ position in discussions with China, the European Union and other investment partners. Projects serving several national markets are more attractive when they form part of a coherent regional plan. By agreeing on common priorities and identifying missing infrastructure links, governments could give investors a clearer understanding of how individual projects contribute to wider trade networks. This would also help ensure that external investment supports local value-added production and mutually beneficial economic cooperation rather than transit capacity alone.

At the same time, closer cooperation with the South Caucasus should complement the priorities of the five Central Asian states. Water and energy remain particularly important because decisions about irrigation and hydropower affect agricultural production, electricity supply and investment across national borders. Regular information exchange and agreements that account for upstream and downstream needs would make economic planning more dependable. Progress in these areas would strengthen the economic foundations of Central Asian cooperation while creating more favorable conditions for wider partnerships.

Turning these opportunities into results will require consistent follow-up between summits. The consultative format does not need extensive supranational institutions to deliver practical benefits. It needs clear responsibilities, realistic timetables and regular coordination among the ministries, transport operators and businesses involved in joint projects. Identifying obstacles early and resolving them through existing channels would help ensure that political agreements translate into improvements that businesses can actually use.

Shared investments and regular commerce can give the countries that met in Avaza a lasting interest in one another’s economic success. For a producer in Central Asia, progress would mean being able to accept an order from abroad with confidence in the cost, the route and the rules for getting it to the customer. The success of the expanded consultative format will ultimately depend on whether stronger transport connections can generate more trade, investment and production among the participating economies. Moving from connecting routes to connecting economies would give this partnership a durable foundation for the years ahead.

Bauyrzhan Auken is a lead expert in the Department of Asian Studies at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Astana Times. 

The post From Transit to Trade: Economic Opportunity After Avaza appeared first on The Astana Times.