Bitcoin investors who bought in one to two years ago finally got the exit they were waiting for. As the price climbed toward $88,000, that group sold heavily, and the rally ran out of road.
Who sold, and where
The selling came mostly from long-term holders, the patient cohort that usually sits tight through volatility. On-chain data from Glassnode showed this group taking profits as prices pushed higher.
Many of these holders bought during the 2025 rally, mainly when Bitcoin traded between $89,000 and $97,000.
In October 2026, long-term holders recorded their heaviest daily selling volumes of the year as Bitcoin neared resistance around $85,000.
That ceiling showed up between $85,000 and $87,000. Heavy sell walls on Binance capped the price, and those walls are essentially stacks of limit orders waiting to unload coins at set levels.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offered no rescue. Flows were mixed, and the funds could not fully soak up the supply hitting the market.
On October 8, 2026, Bitcoin ETFs saw $487 million in net redemptions in a single day.
The leverage flush
Bitcoin traded between $83,000 and $87,000 through September and early October 2026. Then it slipped below $85,000.
The dip came on low trading volume. More than $2.4 billion in long liquidations followed during the early October pullback. These were traders who borrowed to bet on higher prices and were forcibly closed out when the market moved against them.
The research frames this as a leverage flush rather than a systemic collapse. Overextended bets got wiped out, but the broader structure held up.
Buyers stepped in around $81,000 to $82,000, where strong bids formed a support cluster. Large buy orders have been parked at $81,000 to $81,250 since early October 2026.
Profit-taking, not panic
Market data suggests the distribution is concentrated among early-cycle investors rather than a broad capitulation. Realized profits from long-term holders and exchange supply data both point to fading downward pressure near key support.
What this means for the market
QCP Capital expects Bitcoin to trade in a range of $80,000 to $90,000 for the fourth quarter of 2026. The firm sees accumulation likely between $80,000 and $82,000, with resistance near $88,000 to $90,000.
QCP Capital says the next leg depends on macro catalysts, especially the October Consumer Price Index report and shifts in ETF demand.
The supply side is the core problem for bulls. Long-term holders sitting on coins bought between $89,000 and $97,000 may keep selling into any rally that gets them close to breakeven.
With over $2.4 billion in long positions wiped out, the market is less crowded with fragile bets. Daily ETF flows will show whether institutions are returning after redemptions like the $487 million exit on October 8. The CPI print will set the macro mood. And the order books on venues like Binance will reveal whether the walls near $85,000 to $87,000 are thinning or being restocked.
If the $81,000 to $81,250 bids give way, the low end of QCP Capital’s range comes into play quickly. If new demand arrives and chews through the overhead supply, the $88,000 to $90,000 resistance zone becomes the next test.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.