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SpaceX has made public its Q3 2026 earnings report, with a webcast featuring Elon Musk, Gwynne Shotwell, and Bret W. J. scheduled to occur shortly. The report, available just months after SpaceX’s IPO in June, marks the second earnings disclosure since the company’s public listing. This quarter’s report is particularly noteworthy as it includes the financial impact of Cursor, the AI coding firm acquired for $60 billion. Analysts had anticipated revenue between $12.7 billion and $13.0 billion, along with a potential return to positive earnings per share (EPS).
Key Takeaways
- The release of SpaceX’s earnings report appears to have influenced market participants’ views on a potential merger with Tesla.
- Market pricing suggests a moderate increase in the probability of a merger announcement by December 31, with current odds at 18.5% YES.
- The upcoming webcast with Elon Musk could provide additional insights or indications that may impact merger speculation.
What to Watch
Observers will focus on the scheduled webcast for any hints or statements from Elon Musk or other SpaceX executives that could further influence market perceptions of a merger with Tesla. Key indicators of a potential merger include formal announcements via earnings calls or official channels from Tesla or SpaceX. The timeframe for further developments appears to extend into early 2027, with market participants watching for any SEC filings or verified statements that could affirm or deny merger intentions.
Term Structure
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 18% | — | — | View market → |
| January 1 2028 | 66% | — | — | View market → |
| July 1 2027 | 54.5% | — | — | View market → |
| February 1 2027 | 31% | — | — | View market → |
| March 1 2027 | 35.5% | — | — | View market → |