Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning entered the 2026 college football season as a preseason Heisman Trophy favorite and the early favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. But after back-to-back losses, there are now real questions about whether he will even keep his starting job.
On Thursday, college football analyst Josh Pate was asked whether Saturday’s game against No. 7 Ole Miss could be Manning’s last start for the Longhorns. And while he didn’t say it would be, he didn’t rule it out either, saying that Manning is “on thin ice.”
‘He’s Gotta Fight Back’
Texas has dropped two straight games, both by a score of 27-24, and Manning committed a costly late turnover in each. Against Oklahoma, his interception with 19 seconds left set up the game-winning field goal. A week later, his late fumble sealed a loss to Florida after Texas had blown a 17-3 lead.
Through six games, Manning has thrown for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions, and he has only topped 250 passing yards twice. The Longhorns are now 4-2, 1-2 in SEC play, and ranked No. 19 in the AP Poll.
After the Florida loss, head coach Steve Sarkisian said “everything is going to be evaluated” as he did not rule out making a change at quarterback, and the team has started giving backup KJ Lacey Jr. more first-team reps in practice. But Sarkisian also defended his quarterback this week, calling Manning “edgy” and saying that “at some point, he’s gotta fight back.”
‘On Thin Ice’
As Texas heads into this all-important game against Ole Miss, Pate didn’t sound all convinced that Manning will get many more chances if things don’t go well on Saturday.
“I feel weird even talking like that, but the answer might be yes. The answer is, he is on thin ice,” Pate said on ESPN’s Get Up, via On3. “Even Steve Sarkisian has had to sort of acknowledge that they’re giving K.J. Lacey some first team reps, but then again, he always takes first team reps. I trust the reporting around that program that you’re probably on thin ice and needing to make a move there.”
Pate also pointed out that Manning already had a perfect chance to bounce back last week, and didn’t take advantage of it.
“You mentioned the optimum phrase there… bounce back. Wasn’t that last week too, though? Last week, against a pass defense in the 100s in the Florida Gators,” Pate said. “That was the perfect bounce back. I want to say they had like five total passes completed beyond the line of scrimmage. That was the opportunity.”
Compared to what Manning faced against Florida, Pate thinks that Ole Miss will present a much more difficult test. And based on the way he predicts that the game will play out, he thinks that Texas will need Manning to make plays.
“Ole Miss comes in this week and here’s the difference between last week and this week; you can get beat this week, but they may make you trade points to keep up with them,” Pate said. “Florida last week took some assistance on your end. You can play good and Trinidad Chambliss can beat you. Again, without a good running game, this falls on the shoulders of Arch Manning.”
A loss on Saturday would give Texas its first three-game losing streak since 2021, and it would almost certainly knock the Longhorns out of College Football Playoff contention.
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