Standard Chartered has shifted its prediction for the stablecoin sector hitting $2 trillion from 2028 to 2030 due to stagnation in supply growth as the sector hovers around $309 billion.
The bank is not lowering its target. Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of the bank’s digital assets research, is confident about growth happening but will take longer than anticipated, irrespective of the increase in blockchain transfers.
Supply that stopped growing
Kendrick stated that supply has remained in the range of $300 billion to $320 billion over the previous year. He considers the decrease is cyclical in nature as a result of negative developments in the crypto markets.
According to DefiLlama, the supply figure is estimated to be around $303.7 billion, which includes $184 billion in USDT and $73 billion in USDC. Allium reported the supply figure to be $303 billion in August, showing an increase of just 6% in a year with Tether and Circle having 85% market share.
Usage is rising even as supply sits still
In 2026, monthly transfers reached approximately $10 trillion as contrasted to the $4 trillion in 2025. In May, the monthly transfers peaked at $19 trillion.
The monthly velocity doubled from 15 to 30. USDC rose from 45 to 80, and USDT remained steady at around 7.
According to Kendrick, USDT has been mentioned in connection with emerging market dollar savings, while USDC has been used in the cases of payment processing, financial transactions and early AI-agent settlement process.
Why transfers are not the same as payments
Not all transfers on the blockchain are to be considered spending. As discovered by Allium, only $4 trillion in economic activity can be attributed to the $85 trillion transferred between January and August 2026. Of this, trade was responsible for 69% of the activity, while payments accounted for 13%.
Still, payments reached at least $401 billion, growing 42%. Businesses received 58%–64%, while cross-border payments grew seven times faster than conventional fiat rails.
Visa’s research, using on-chain analytics, measured quarterly velocity at 13.56 in late 2025, but just 0.08 for retail-sized transfers below $250. Such transfers represented less than 1% of activity.
What more usage, not more supply, could change
That makes institutional payments increasingly competitive. Kendrick identified Open USD, M^0, and planned banking network A+ as challengers.
“Issues like yield capture will ultimately determine how this sector plays out,” Kendrick told The Block.
Stablecoin reserves have a bearing on the Treasury market as well. Allium has estimated that the Treasury will receive $170 billion worth of new demand, while the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has linked inflows to lower short-term yields. According to a previous report by Cryptopolitan, Standard Chartered’s initial prognosis indicated $1.6 trillion in new T-bill demand.
According to another BIS study, as much as 98% of stablecoin value is denominated in dollars which leads to an increased dollar dominance but also raises digital dollarization threats.
According to Brookings researchers Nellie Liang and Brent Neiman, while stablecoins have the ability to hasten international remittance transactions, the issues of consumer protection and sanctions enforcement remain valid concerns.
Regulation as the swing factor
The GENIUS Act is expected to take effect in January 2027, potentially earlier if implementing regulations are finalized.
Kendrick warned USDT could lose ground “if global regulators were to closely follow the lead” of U.S. rules, encouraging bank-backed competition.
The ability of supply of stablecoins to keep up with the ever-increasing demand will determine whether Standard Chartered’s forecast of $2 trillion for the year 2030 materializes.
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