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They’re 1-4, but the Houston Texans are far better than their record indicates.
Demeco Ryans’ group comes in as a 2.5-point underdog against the Jaguars in London, as many pundits joke that this is actually a home game for their Eastern Florida foes.
Though that’s not exactly a reality.
The Jaguars are 7-8 against the spread in London since 2013 and have one cover in their last four games there.
They’re also 8-7 straight-up across the pond.
Jacksonville (4-1) is a very good team, but so are the Texans.
Liam Coen’s group is No. 2 overall in DVOA, but I’m expecting major regression there.
The Jaguars are allowing 332 yards per game (18th), but their DVOA ranking is so high because they are coughing up just 13.3 points per game (second-best).
This is all backed by an elite red-zone defense; they’re giving up touchdowns on just 14 percent of trips, second best in the NFL.
We saw cornerback Travis Hunter record an interception last week at the goal line against the Eagles; that won’t hold up over a long season.
The Texans started slowly, but I think they’re going to rip off a few consecutive wins starting Sunday morning in England.
Target the Texans to win this overseas clash, and this is going to be your last chance to wager on a preseason AFC favorite to win their division.
Houston has games upcoming against the Giants (No. 27 DVOA), Chargers (No. 29 DVOA) and Browns (No. 26 DVOA).
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That 0-4 start could quickly turn into 5-4 and you’ll be off to the races.
Buy low on a Houston team that is all-in this year.
PREDICTION: Texans moneyline (+130, 43.48 percent, Novig) | Texans win the AFC South (+631, 13.68 percent, Novig)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.