Republican US Senate candidate Mike Rogers and allies including President Donald Trump are escalating their efforts to tie Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood less than two weeks before the November 3 midterms, with Trump falsely branding him a "jihadist."
Pollsters and political strategists say the approach is aimed at dissuading Jewish and Black voters in the Detroit area who backed El-Sayed's primary opponent, Haley Stevens, from getting behind the Democratic nominee in the closing days of the Senate campaign in Michigan.
"It gives them even more reason to pause and not vote for El-Sayed," said Dennis Darnoi, a Republican political consultant. "If Democratic voters aren't casting ballots for El-Sayed in what is the biggest population area here, then that is a net benefit to Mike Rogers' campaign."
El-Sayed and Rogers are vying for the seat held by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters in a race that could determine whether Democrats gain the four Senate seats needed to take control of the chamber in next month's election.
Republicans currently have a 53-47 seat majority, which would be harder to overturn if El-Sayed loses. The Democrat has built a small lead in opinion polls by focusing his campaign on affordability, healthcare and getting money out of politics.
Rogers has sought to undermine the Democrat's support among Jewish voters by pointing to El-Sayed's criticism of Israel's offensive in Gaza and asserting that El-Sayed has longstanding family ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the Arab world's oldest and most influential Islamist groups.
Strategists said homing in on the Muslim Brotherhood also aims to hurt El-Sayed by exploiting economic tensions between Black voters and Michigan's large Arab-American community. Rogers has pointed to old social media posts by El-Sayed's half sister saying their mother was involved with the organisation in the 1970s.
El-Sayed has disavowed the Muslim Brotherhood, denied any connection with the group and has said that he was not raised by his mother. His parents divorced when he was 3 years old, and he was raised by his father and step-mother.
Asked about Rogers' strategy, campaign spokesperson Alyssa Brouillet said El-Sayed's "extremist positions" on issues ranging from prisons to the Muslim Brotherhood were alienating Michiganders.
El-Sayed campaign spokesperson Roxie Richner said Rogers is trying to distract from the economic effects of Trump's agenda, adding in a statement: "Independent fact checkers have repeatedly debunked Mike’s lies, but their campaign continues to use bad faith attacks on Abdul's faith and family."
'Proud to be an American'
Rogers hit the Muslim Brotherhood message hard during this week's televised debate, questioning the Democrat's loyalty to the US.
"If you are going to go to the United States Senate, we need to know: are you for America or are you for these terrorist groups overseas?" Rogers asked.
El-Sayed, a son of Egyptian immigrants who would be the first Muslim to be elected to the US Senate if he wins, responded by calling the question shameful. "It's actually quite beneath you, Mike," he replied. "I am proud of America. I'm proud to be an American. I'm proud of our Constitution that guarantees all of us the right to pray as we choose to pray."
Rogers, a former congressman, US Army officer and FBI agent, later appealed directly to Democrats who voted for Stevens, saying they "have a home" with him if they were worried that El-Sayed was too "extreme."
Michigan Senate race a 'toss-up'
It is unclear if the Republican strategy is paying off. The race is rated a toss-up by independent political analysts, with polls showing El-Sayed with an average lead of 2.6 percentage points, according to the website RealClearPolling.com.
El-Sayed has campaigned recently with prominent Black political figures such as Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Representative Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Former President Barack Obama, who has endorsed El-Sayed, is due to campaign with him on Saturday.
Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus Chair Keith Williams, who backed Stevens in Michigan's Democratic primary contest and is now working to rally support for El-Sayed, acknowledged that tensions between the Black and Arab American communities are an issue for the candidate.
"We have to work through our differences," Williams told Reuters. "At the end of the day, this election is bigger than our differences because we cannot have a senator going to Washington and supporting Donald Trump's policies."
Some strategists say the attacks may have come too late to reshape the race and risk backfiring if voters view them as anti-Muslim.
"I don't know what this does for them," said Jim Zogby, a longtime pollster and co-founder of the Arab American Institute, a nonprofit that advocates for the Arab American community.
"There are people who think Haitians eat cats and dogs and think anybody with an Arabic name is either a terrorist or a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. But that's a much smaller group of people - and it's already a Republican group of people."
Overwhelming support from black voters
A September Emerson College poll showed support for El-Sayed at 81 per cent among Black voters, who make up about a quarter of Michigan Democrats.
"There was no sign there in mid-September of erosion of Black support for El-Sayed. I would not suspect that the number would have changed much over the last month," said Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling.
Democrat Jocelyn Benson, who is running for Michigan governor, scored 4 percentage points higher in the same poll, while Harris drew 86 per cent of the Black vote in 2024.
Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell said weaker support among Black and Jewish voters could cost El-Sayed as many as 20,000 votes. Rogers lost his 2024 Senate bid to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by a similar margin.