Cuba is experiencing a rapid demographic shift, with the proportion of its population aged 60 and over reaching 26.7% by the end of 2025. This represents a one percentage point increase from 2024, when the figure stood at 25.7%.
The latest data reveals a widespread aging trend across all provinces, with some regions seeing particularly stark increases.
Demographic Changes Across Provinces
The National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) released its 2025 report, accompanied by a map highlighting provincial differences in the aging population.
According to the report titled "Population Aging: Cuba and its Territories, 2025," Villa Clara emerges as the oldest province, with 30.2% of its residents aged 60 or older. This means nearly three in ten people in the area fall into this age group.
Following Villa Clara, Havana shows an aging rate of 29.1%, while Cienfuegos records 27.7%, and both Sancti Spíritus and Camagüey have 27.6% each.
Pinar del Río and Matanzas also exceed the national average, with 27.1% and 26.9%, respectively.
Nationwide Impact of Aging
These statistics confirm that the aging trend is not confined to rural areas or the capital but is a nationwide demographic shift.
Conversely, Guantánamo reports the lowest percentage of older adults at 23.3%, followed by Santiago de Cuba and Artemisa, both at 24.2%. Granma and Ciego de Ávila have 24.8% and 25%, respectively.
Despite being below the national average, these regions still have significant numbers of residents aged 60 and above.
Municipal Disparities in Aging
The ONEI identified even larger disparities at the municipal level. In Havana's Plaza de la Revolución, 38.2% of the population is 60 or older, the highest in the country. This translates to nearly four out of ten residents in this urban area being seniors.
In contrast, Yateras in Guantánamo shows the lowest aging rate, with only 17.9% of its population in this age bracket, highlighting a 20.3 percentage point gap between these municipalities.
These new findings underscore how swiftly the demographic landscape has changed in just a year. For instance, Villa Clara saw an increase of 1.1 percentage points, and Havana experienced a one-point increase in 2025 compared to the previous year.
Underlying Factors of Population Decline
The aging trend results from several simultaneous factors: a sustained decline in birth rates, a growing proportion of older generations, and emigration, which predominantly affects younger, working-age groups.
Cuba is undergoing a significant demographic contraction. In July, the ONEI reported that the country's population had fallen to 9,434,593 by the end of 2025, a loss of 313,414 residents from the previous year.
This decline is exacerbated by a negative net migration of 245,264 people in 2025, highlighting emigration's impact on population decrease.
Plummeting birth rates add to the crisis, with 2025 experiencing historic lows in births and deaths nearly doubling new births. This trend is shrinking the young population and narrowing the workforce base essential for economic, public service, and pension systems.
Expert Warnings on Future Demographics
In August, Cuban demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos cautioned against the consequences of this rapid population decline. He projected scenarios where Cuba's population could dwindle to approximately 5.6 million if current trends persist.
The expert also pointed out that the large cohorts born during Cuba's baby boom are now reaching retirement age, further depleting the economically active population.
Moreover, a July analysis of the elderly population highlighted the struggle to meet basic needs with pensions that have lost purchasing power amid rising costs of food, medicine, and services.
Understanding Cuba's Aging Population Crisis
What percentage of Cuba's population is aged 60 or older in 2025?
By the end of 2025, 26.7% of Cuba's population was 60 years old or older.
Which province in Cuba has the highest proportion of elderly residents?
Villa Clara is the most aged province in Cuba, with 30.2% of its population being 60 or older.
What are the contributing factors to Cuba's aging population?
Key factors include declining birth rates, an increasing proportion of older generations, and significant emigration, particularly among younger, working-age individuals.
How has Cuba's population changed in terms of numbers?
Cuba's population decreased to 9,434,593 by the end of 2025, marking a reduction of 313,414 residents compared to the previous year.