Styles make fights, and this Saturday, we've got an intriguing matchup in Fort Worth as West Virginia takes on TCU. The Mountaineers enter this contest as one of the most explosive and dynamic offenses in the country, while the Horned Frogs have one of the stingiest defenses in all the land. Something has to give.
It's just the opposite on the other side of the ball for these two teams. West Virginia has one of the nation's worst defenses, and TCU has really had a difficult time putting points on the board.
There is a lot of situational stuff that will determine the outcome of this game, but one metric that will likely get overlooked is how many snaps TCU's defense will have to defend. The Horned Frogs have done a good job of getting off the field quickly, forcing three-and-outs, and getting the ball back to their struggling offense. As you'll see below in their games against FBS foes, TCU is holding teams to just 65.8 snaps per game.
TCU's defensive snaps defended by game (FBS games only)
The first number inside the parentheses is the average number of snaps that team has per game on offense. The second number is where they were in that game, snap-wise, against TCU compared to their season average.
58 vs. North Carolina (60.8; -2.8)
55 vs. Arkansas State (64.5; -9.5)
57 vs. UCF (62.8; -5.8)
65 vs. BYU (61.2; +3.8)
94 vs. Baylor (83.6; +10.4)
65.8 plays defended per game
Holding opponents to 3.9 fewer snaps than their average
West Virginia's offense is a completely different beast from what they've seen thus far. Sure, Baylor has some dynamic pieces and typically gets a bunch of snaps off per game, but they haven't defended a rushing attack quite like this- one that can just absolutely wear you out.
WVU's offensive snaps per game (FBS games only)
76 vs. Coastal Carolina (70.8; +5.2)
72 vs. Virginia (67.3; +4.7)
89 vs. Oklahoma State (74.2; +14.8)
65 vs. Iowa State (59.6; +5.4)
108 vs. Arizona (73.6; +34.4)
82 vs. Cincinnati (75.8; +6.2)
82 plays per game
11.8 more plays than the opponent's average
76.8 plays per game if you remove Arizona
7.3 more plays than the opponent's average if you remove Arizona
I included the scenario of removing the Arizona game because it was just such an odd situation. Rarely do you see a team get over 100 plays, let alone double up the other team while doing so.
Now, part of the reason WVU is averaging so many more plays per game than their opponent is used to defending is that their defense is giving up tons of explosives, which lead to quick scoring drives. In that Arizona game alone, the Wildcats scored 28 points on 10 plays, and obviously that played a big part in West Virginia doubling them up on snaps.
But the other part of it is that the Mountaineers typically do a pretty good job of sustaining drives because of their high third down conversion rate (49.5%). Playing fast is one thing, but doing so and forcing the defense to defend 10-12-play drives is a whole other challenge. Over the course of a four quarter game, you'll start to see the front seven put hands on hips and sucking air regularly.
If WVU's offense continues to sustain drives against what will be, without question, their stiffest challenge yet, and Zac Alley's unit can create a few more stops or manufacture some turnovers, that snap total will be leaning heavily in West Virginia's favor, and if that's the case, you have to like the Mountaineers' chances of winning the game. Again, that's assuming you're not having a repeat of the Arizona game.
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