BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Wednesday, 21 October, 2:05 p.m. ET · Source: Folha de S.Paulo, CNN Brasil, Estado de Minas
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- What happened A draft rule at the electoral court would block big political WhatsApp channels from 48 hours before the vote to 24 hours after.
- The channels It targets channels with over 200,000 users, including pro-Lula “Exército do Lula” with over 7 million.
- Status Justice André Mendonça says it is a joint draft; court president Kassio Nunes Marques says nothing will change.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79% chance of winning the runoff (21 October, 1:57 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 22% and 21%), as of 21 October, 1:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Brazil’s electoral court is weighing a draft rule that would block large political WhatsApp channels from 48 hours before the runoff to 24 hours after. Justice André Mendonça said on Wednesday 21 October that the text was not his solo idea and depends on a vote by the full court, Folha de S.Paulo reported.
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Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.1%, Lula 48.9%
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Court president Kassio Nunes Marques says he will not convene one.
The draft matters because the Brazil election 2026 runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is on Sunday 25 October. WhatsApp is Brazil’s main messaging app, so rules on its channels shape how both campaigns reach voters in the final days.
What the Draft Would Do
The text would block political WhatsApp channels with more than 200,000 users from 48 hours before the vote to 24 hours after, Estado de Minas reported, after Folha first revealed the draft. Mendonça’s office said the goal is to protect the integrity of the vote “in the hours before and after voting,” when there is no time to correct unlawful content, CNN Brasil reported.
Reports say two channels would be affected. “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army) has over 7 million subscribers and was created by federal deputy André Janones, while the Flávio-supporting “Tropa do Flávio” has about 2 million.
Mendonça’s note says the criteria are “objective and impersonal” and apply equally to every large political channel. It also says the justices met beforehand and agreed the topic needed handling.
A Court Divided at the Last Minute
Folha reported that court members told it the agreement covered only new political channels, not ones already running. Flávio’s campaign has filed several requests asking the court to take down Janones’ channel, which was suspended once by court president Kassio Nunes Marques and later returned.
Nunes Marques told Folha he opposes last-minute changes to election rules. He was quoted by Estado de Minas as saying “there will be no change at all.”
Edinho Silva, president of Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) and coordinator of his campaign, said the rules cannot change while the game is under way. He added that the party may take legal action, CNN Brasil reported.
What It Means for US Readers
Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America, and a dispute over campaign rules in the last week can feed doubts about the result. Investors in Brazilian stocks and the real will watch whether the court acts or drops the idea before Sunday.
For Americans following the runoff, the case shows how far an electoral court can reach into online campaigning.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.7% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (21 October, 1:57 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$190.8 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.9% · Lula 21.5% (US$191 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 21 October, 1:40 pm ET (18:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the full court will vote on the draft before Sunday. Nunes Marques says he has not called a meeting and will not, but the reports we reviewed show no formal decision.
Nor is it clear whether the rule would cover only new channels or existing ones as well. The two accounts of what the justices agreed differ.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
What is the TSE draft on WhatsApp channels?
It would block political WhatsApp channels with over 200,000 users from 48 hours before the 25 October runoff to 24 hours after. It is a draft and has not been voted on.
Which channels would be affected?
“Exército do Lula” (over 7 million subscribers) and “Tropa do Flávio” (about 2 million). Each is tied to one candidate’s supporters.
Will the rule take effect?
Not yet. Court president Kassio Nunes Marques opposes last-minute changes, and the full court has not voted.
How did the Lula campaign react?
PT president Edinho Silva said rules cannot change during the game and that legal action is possible. The party has not said what it would file.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Sources: Folha de S.Paulo, 21 October 2026; CNN Brasil (Teó Cury blog), 21 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 21 October 2026; Estado de Minas, 21 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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