Colombia could face electricity supply disruptions starting in April 2027 unless urgent measures are taken to ensure sufficient power availability, Deputy Energy Minister Armando Jose Cuello warned.
The warning comes as the country faces the most intense phase of the El Niño phenomenon, amid ongoing concerns about water levels in reservoirs, rising electricity demand, and delays in bringing new power generation projects online.
Together, these factors are testing the capacity of a power system heavily dependent on hydroelectric generation to supply households, businesses, and industry under adverse weather conditions.
Deputy Minister Cuello warned that Colombia could lack sufficient electricity to meet demand in April if daily consumption remains at around 265 gigawatt-hours (GWh) and the government fails to address vulnerabilities in the system. The warning does not mean nationwide blackouts are inevitable, but it does highlight how the system’s room for maneuver is shrinking as the dry season approaches.
‘We’ll run out of energy by April 2027,’ Colombian Government warns
The main risk stems from Colombia’s dependence on hydropower. A substantial share of the country’s electricity is generated by plants that rely on water stored in reservoirs, making the system particularly vulnerable to droughts and declining rainfall.
The continuation of El Niño’s most severe phase — which is already affecting the country — into the first months of 2027 could worsen the situation by reducing rainfall in key regions, raising temperatures, and accelerating the depletion of water reserves.
Lower water inflows into reservoirs would leave fewer resources available to sustain hydroelectric generation, precisely when electricity consumption could rise because of higher temperatures. Against this backdrop, the first months of next year will be critical, as the period from February through April is emerging as a particularly vulnerable window in which unfavorable weather conditions could coincide with insufficient alternative generation capacity.
When hydroelectric output declines, Colombia must rely more heavily on thermal power plants, which generate electricity using fuels such as natural gas and liquid petroleum derivatives. These plants play an essential role during dry seasons, but their ability to offset declining hydropower generation depends on fuel availability and whether the facilities can operate continuously.
Thermal power plants and delays in new projects worsen the problem
Colombia’s ability to avoid an electricity shortfall will depend largely on whether its thermal power plants can maintain sufficient output. According to projections released for the power system, thermal generation would need to remain above an average of 85 GWh per day through April 2027 to help ensure electricity supplies under the scenarios analyzed.
This requirement highlights another problem: the availability of natural gas and other fuels. Thermal power plants cannot serve as an effective backup if they lack the resources needed to operate at the required levels. For this reason, the government has sought to diversify fuel supply options and strengthen preparedness measures to address potential difficulties.
The expansion of electricity infrastructure is also a source of concern. Several projects aimed at increasing generation capacity and improving transmission networks have been delayed, limiting the additional capacity that could be brought online before the critical period. Moreover, generating electricity does not guarantee that it can reach all regions if constraints exist in the networks that carry it.
The government has begun taking steps to reduce these risks. These include adjustments to maintenance schedules for hydroelectric plants to prevent major facilities from being out of service simultaneously during the months when the power system faces the greatest strain.
Authorities are also seeking to encourage more efficient electricity use and strengthen fuel availability for thermal power plants. However, these initiatives will need to be accompanied by sustained power generation, reliable supplies of natural gas and other fuels, and tangible progress on pending infrastructure projects.
The consequences of an electricity shortfall would extend beyond power outages affecting households. Supply restrictions could also disrupt industrial production, hurt commercial activity, and affect the provision of essential services, while increasing uncertainty over energy costs.
Ante la llega del fenómeno de El Niño, cuidar el agua, el gas y la energía es compromiso de todos. https://t.co/lbupgjMU8Y
— XM SA ESP (@XM_SA_ESP) October 13, 2026