For years, Russia has treated the Balkans as a battleground for its geopolitical ambitions, exploiting ethnic divisions, fueling tensions, and challenging Western influence. Now, Montenegro is pushing back.
The arrest in Montenegro of Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder of the influential pro-Kremlin military blog channel Rybar, signals a potential turning point in the country’s confrontation with Moscow. Detained on Oct. 9 alongside his wife and three other Russian nationals before being expelled from Montenegro and flying to Russia. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić confirmed Zvinchuk’s detention on X, citing warnings that Montenegro could face destabilization efforts and hybrid warfare.
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Zvinchuk is now back in Moscow, but what does his expulsion reveal about Montenegro’s evolving relationship with the Kremlin?
Zvinchuk has been part of the Russian military and he founded Rybar with Denis Shchukin, a Moscow-based programmer in 2018 focusing mostly on the Middle East. Its audience remained modest until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 transformed it into a major information warfare platform as it has over 1.5 million subscribers.
According to the State Department, Rybar was initially funded by the late Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and later was funded by Rostec, the Russian state defense conglomerate that the US Treasury Department sanctioned in June 2022.
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Beyond its commentary, the channel is a direct participant in the war. It has published the positions of Ukrainian forces and boasted that the Russian army uses its data for missile strikes, and Zvinchuk has claimed to supply target coordinates to the Defense Ministry and Wagner. In December 2022, Putin appointed him to a working group coordinating Russia’s mobilization effort, and the EU sanctioned him over that role in 2023.
Its work also extends well beyond Ukraine as the channel promotes pro-Kremlin narratives in Africa and the Middle East.
Montenegro is not the only Balkan country where Moscow has sought to expand its influence. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia has exploited deep ethnic divisions, cultivating close ties with pro-Putin Bosnian Serb politician Milorad Dodik, who has repeatedly threatened Republika Srpska’s secession. Thirty years after the Dayton Peace Accords ended the war, the country’s fragile political system remains vulnerable to Russia’s interference.
During a June 2024 visit to Republika Srpska, the majority-Serb territory within Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zvinchuk discussed plans to launch a Rybar “media school.” In an interview that year, Zvinchuk warned the Balkans “will catch on fire” as other conflicts subside. In November 2025, he traveled to Bosnia and Herzegovina entering on the day of Republika Srpska’s presidential election and reportedly filming election commentary outside the entity’s government building.
Beyond its commentary, the Rybar channel is a direct participant in the war.
At an RT-organized festival in Serbia in 2025 and Zvinchuk called Kosovo and Republika Srpska “very sensitive points of pressure on Russia” and claimed the West wanted to build an American base in Republika Srpska.
Rybar’s expansion into the Balkans is part of a broader international influence operation that has drawn growing scrutiny from Western governments.
The EU sanctioned Zvinchuk in 2023, followed by London, putting Rybar’s Kremlin ties under mounting Western scrutiny. In 2024, the State Department accused Zvinchuk of trying to interfere in the US presidential election and offered up to $10 million for information on those involved. The UK sanctioned 10 individuals behind Rybar in 2026 for “for spreading false narratives about Ukraine and interfering in European elections, including in Moldova and Armenia.”
For Moscow, Montenegro represents a potential weak link in NATO’s southeastern flank and a strategic gateway to the Adriatic Sea. Since joining NATO in 2017, the country has faced Russian efforts to undermine its Western alignment and EU ambitions. Tensions date back to 2016, when Montenegro accused Russian operatives of plotting a coup to overthrow the government and prevent its accession to NATO.
The stakes are now even higher. The EU has reaffirmed its support for Montenegro’s ambition to join by 2028, making it the leading EU accession candidate in the Western Balkans. However, as Podgorica approaches this milestone, Russian interference threatens to complicate its path. The arrest of Rybar founder Mikhail Zvinchuk signals a tougher stance against Russian influence operations. But Montenegro is far from out of the woods. With its European ambitions on the line, Moscow still has plenty of opportunities to exploit the country’s vulnerabilities.
NATO should renew its support, building on its 2019 deployment of a Counter-Hybrid Support Team to Montenegro, while the EU should send hybrid response teams, following its model in Moldova.
For Moscow, Montenegro’s Western ambitions are a threat to its influence in the Balkans. Rybar is one tool in that fight, and Zvinchuk’s arrest is a warning shot. The question is whether NATO and the EU will step up before the Kremlin strikes back.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Dr. Ivana Stradner serves as a research fellow with the Barish Center for Media Integrity at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Her research focuses on Russia’s security strategies and military doctrines to understand how Russia uses information operations for strategic communication.