The Brian Thomas Jr. Era Effectively Ended vs. Texans, and the Jaguars' Next Steps Must Be Careful

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- For all intents and purposes, it appears the Brian Thomas Jr. era effectively ended in Week 6.

The Jaguars lost Sunday in a tight 34-31 AFC South heavyweight battle with the Houston Texans, and Thomas' performance and lack of usage and production said it all about where Thomas stands in the Jaguars' offensive plans, both today and in the future.

"Week-to-week, guys have to step up and make plays," Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said bluntly after the game when asked about having confidence in Thomas moving forward after a zero-catch day that saw Thomas struggle with drops.

But that makes the Jaguars' next steps with Thomas all the more important. Here is where things could go from here, and why the Jaguars' must take a careful direction moving forward with the trade deadline a month away.

Where Things Stand

Simply put, whatever the Jaguars do with Thomas moving forward has to be considered carefully. It now looks like a mistake that the Jaguars didn't trade Thomas in the offseason, though it seems hard to believe anyone could have predicted his standing in the offense would get even worse than it was a year ago. But there is no use in crying over spille

The Jaguars' connection between Thomas and Trevor Lawrence was a big emphasis this offseason, and for good reason. According to NextGenStats, Thomas recorded 465 receiving yards on deep passes (20+ air yards) in 2024, the third-most in the NFL. But through six games, Thomas has not caught a deep pass and has been targeted on just over 10% of his deep routes. His speed is a factor to the attention it requires, but the downfield factor has completely been erased.

Thomas and Lawrence simply have not been on the same page all season. Thomas entered the week tied with Jordan Addison for No. 73 out of 74 qualified receivers in catch rate at just 50%, and that number went down on Sunday after Thomas and Lawrence failed to connect on two critical targets: an early 2nd-down throw in Texans territory that would have put the Jaguars in at least field goal range, and then an end-of-half target that could have done similar.

"Yeah, I think we just have to keep working, keep plugging away, keep finding opportunities to give him shots at the ball and I think for him, just keep playing and let the ball find you," Lawrence said. "I think that's the big thing, is don't try to chase too much and obviously we need to get him involved more and we're going to need him, so just excited for the opportunity moving forward to do that and just kind of stick with it.

"This game is funny. It doesn't always work exactly how you want it to, and sometimes things can be challenging, getting a specific guy touches and involved and just [have to] stick with it, the ball will find him. It will come his way. He's too good of a player for it not to. Just keep working, which he's done. So just keep showing up and we're going to get through it."

It has never been a work issue for Thomas, who was raved about all offseason for how much he poured into preparing for the season. It has also never been a talent issue, with Thomas flashing the high-end traits over the last two seasons that made him such a dangerous weapon. Bu it was just flashes a year ago. Now, it is hardly even that.

Thomas did not have a single 0-catch game in his career until Week 5 against the Philadelphia Eagles. He now has had two in a row, with the Jaguars throwing him five targets in the last two weeks with four incompletions and an interception. The interception was Lawrence's fault, but the other four targets were all arguably drops/failed catches by Thomas: two in the end-zone last week and two more drops this week.

There is a real chance that, coming out of the bye Thomas will be the Jaguars' fifth wide receiver like he was by the end of the game on Sunday. And he doesn't play special teams, like Josh Cameron, or defense, like Travis Hunter. So would it even be worth it to have him as active?

And that is why the Jaguars must be careful in their next steps. Once the question of being a healthy scratch has to be asked, then moves must be considered.

The Next Steps

The trade deadline is still a month away but, as of today, the Jaguars have one of the NFL's most potentially valuable trade pieces in Thomas. He is cheap, just 23 years old, and has been a star receiver before. The former first-round pick would likely net quite the draft package, though the Jaguars have resisted the urge to deal him during the Liam Coen era.

But that likely has to change after Sunday if the Jaguars want to preserve his trade value. The Marvin Harrison Jr. trade last week should have made a potential Thomas trade open and shut when it comes to compensation, but that could change moving forward if Thomas' playing time does.

The fact that Thomas has just nine catches for 105 yards and a touchdown on 20 targets through six games is enough to already do damage to his trade value, but not enough to significantly ding it. What could ding it, though, is if the Jaguars move forward with Thomas benched.

Once the Jaguars officially bench Thomas, or even worse make him inactive, then his value truly gets tanked. The Jaguars likely feel like they need to do it for the sake of their offense considering how much his drops have hurt them, but once he isn't playing the Jaguars lose leverage in trade talks. There is no point in thinking what might have been, but getting a minor draft package for Thomas would be quite a loss considering what his value would have been this past offseason.

The Jaguars could move fast and look to trade Thomas before they kick off against the Indianapolis Colts in 14 days, which seems like the best option for both parties. Thomas' time in the sun of the Jaguars' offense seems over. It has seemed over for a while, and Sunday was simply the acceptance phase.

No matter what the Jaguars do with Thomas, they must move carefully. Trade value, and perhaps wins, depends on it.