Two wins from eleven, 13th in the league, and humbled at Como. If the axe falls, INEOS reportedly have three realistic names on their list: Nagelsmann, Howe, and Conte. We put the numbers against the noise.
Julian Nagelsmann: The Blueprint With a Question Mark
Old Trafford has increasingly turned into a place where good intentions go to die. The numbers are undeniably ugly: two wins from 11 matches, sitting 13th in the table, a 4-1 hiding at Como, and a miserable seven-game winless streak. Furthermore, the captain has publicly voiced his doubts about the current tactics. While Michael Carrick still retains the board’s backing for now, INEOS are actively seeking a Plan B. According to The Telegraph, Julian Nagelsmann is their top choice; he has reportedly been sounded out and is keen on the role. Currently out of work since Germany’s World Cup exit, his appointment would also require no compensation.
From a data perspective, his case is compelling. United have fired off more shots than anyone in the league (138) yet scored just 10 goals, and they manage to win the ball back in the final third a mere three times per game. Contrast this with Nagelsmann’s Bayern of 2021-22, who achieved this 7.6 times a game—the best in the Bundesliga. Furthermore, his Leipzig side of 2020-21 faced the fewest shots and conceded the fewest goals in the league while averaging 60% possession. However, the red flags remain real: a last-32 exit to Paraguay on penalties, a Euro 2024 quarter-final defeat, and lingering rumours of friction in the Bayern dressing room. Get the Leipzig version of Nagelsmann, and he’s an absolute steal; get the jaded version, and it becomes just another expensive experiment.
Eddie Howe: The Insurance Policy
If Nagelsmann represents a gamble, Eddie Howe is the ultimate insurance policy and he reportedly retains strong support among key decision-makers. A free agent since departing Newcastle in the summer, Howe has already turned down other approaches and is understood to be open to a move to Manchester. His CV is essentially a series of successful rebuilding jobs: guiding Bournemouth all the way from League Two to the Premier League, before turning a relegation-threatened Newcastle side into two-time Champions League qualifiers. Along the way, he even beat Liverpool at Wembley to end a 70-year wait for a major trophy. There is no glitz, but there is plenty of graft.
To understand his appeal, look at where United are currently bleeding. They have shipped ten goals in just seven league games, failed to keep a single clean sheet, and concede an alarming 8.1 shots a game from inside their own box. Conversely, Howe’s fourth-placed Newcastle of 2022-23 kept 14 clean sheets and allowed just 6.4 shots per game from inside their area. Crucially, they also won the ball back in the final third 5.3 times a game, compared to United’s 3.0. His approach offers a high press coupled with a locked back door, typically built upon a fairly rigid 4-3-3 system. The only question mark is his tactical ceiling. While Howe would undoubtedly stabilise the ship, a squad that wasn’t properly reinforced over the summer may ultimately require more than just a calming presence.
Antonio Conte: The Grenade With the Pin Half Out
Then there is the wild card. At 57, Antonio Conte boasts a resume featuring league titles with Chelsea, Napoli, Inter, and Juventus—and notably, he put himself forward for this vacancy in September. Italian reports claim that talks continued late into Wednesday night, suggesting he might even break his own rule against taking mid-season jobs just for United. However, his price is steep: carte blanche in the transfer market and a significant say in squad construction. Still, his record with broken teams is hard to argue against. He famously took over a Chelsea side that had finished 10th and immediately won the title in his first season, racking up 30 wins and 93 points.
His recent stint at Napoli tells a similar story of rapid transformation. A side that finished 10th in 2023-24 became champions in 2024-25 under his watch, conceding a mere 27 goals, keeping 19 clean sheets, and facing just 30 big chances all season. By comparison, United have already allowed 14 big chances in only seven league games. Furthermore, his preferred back-three system would perfectly suit the squad Amorim left behind. The primary risk, however, is the man himself, and reports on this front are heavily conflicted. While La Repubblica claims talks are active, The Telegraph states United have cooled on him due to his abrasive nature and history of rapid exits, and Fabrizio Romano has entirely shut down claims of any agreement. Ultimately, Conte would fix the back door fast, but he demands control of the whole house—and when unity under him cracks, it shatters quickly.
The Verdict: Who Gets the Keys?
Despite the swirling rumours, the field is actually thinner than the headlines suggest. Fabian Hürzeler’s Brighton win the ball back in the final third more than anyone in the league (51 times, 7.3 a game), but the 33-year-old has reportedly decided against leaving. Meanwhile, Unai Emery—who remains on the shortlist—is firmly tied to Aston Villa until 2029. That leaves just three free agents who are reportedly open to the role. Nagelsmann boasts the highest ceiling, Howe presents the lowest risk, and Conte offers both the fastest fix and the biggest blast radius. For now, Carrick still gets four crucial games to prove himself—against Bournemouth, Chelsea, Roma, and Aston Villa—with Jason Wilcox reportedly holding the final say on his fate.
So, who should get the keys? The numbers suggest United’s disease is twofold: a press that lacks bite and a penalty box that leaks chances. Nagelsmann primarily treats the first issue, Conte the second, while Howe offers a bit of both. Nagelsmann feels like the gamble worth taking. The club desperately craves control and organisation, and he successfully pairs an elite press with a track record of dominating games, provided he keeps the dressing room onside. Howe remains the sensible fallback, and Conte is the ultimate break-glass option. Of course, all of this assumes Carrick actually falls; until INEOS finally pull the trigger, this is just a rumour, not a result.