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One year of Ukrainian arms exports, and industry has questions: how much army gained, where Berlin office is, who joins joint ventures. Ukraine promised to sell surplus weapons abroad 12 months ago. Its arms makers now ask why a fee of up to 30% still blocks the deals. |
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Starlink helped Ukraine pull off Operation Vivaldi. Now Starlink could help Russia take the ground back. The operation retook 277 square kilometers north of Lyman. The drones that now hold that line lose their Starshield link above about 160 km/h. |
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Ukraine’s answer to Russia’s jet Shaheds: a jet drone named Bars, built to strike Russia and now turned around to hunt them. Zelenskyy says it has the best hit rate of any Ukrainian interceptor against the jet drones, about 30%, but the small jet engines it needs may be in short supply. |
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Progress on a sore point for Ukraine and Poland: remains of over 40 Ukrainians killed by Polish WWII units found in Łasków. The find is the first in years from Ukraine’s searches in Poland, coming as Warsaw keeps pressing Kyiv over how it remembers the UPA. |
Military
Russia kept sneaking troops through gas pipes behind Ukrainian lines. Now Ukraine has gone more than 15 km underground to do the same to Russia. More than 30 Russian soldiers were captured and Russian losses topped 100, the Khartiia Corps reported.
Ukrainian OSINT analyst: Russia’s Yandex data center in Sasovo burned out inside, though its roof shows almost no significant holes. Yandex hasn’t said whether the AI supercomputers there were damaged.
Drones reportedly hit a Russian weapons plant near Moscow that Washington and Kyiv sanctioned. Militarnyi names the systems: Buk and S-300. Astra matched video of the explosion to the 75th Arsenal in Serpukhov.
Fog blinds Ukrainian drones. Russia resumes mechanized assaults in the south after months-long pause, military officials say. Russian forces periodically assault Ukrainian positions in small groups using motorcycles and quad bikes, the Southern Forces Grouping reported.
Ukraine’s Navy killed Russian Shahed: one drone boat launched another drone, which shot down third, all unmanned, all at sea. During the mission, Ukraine pairs a drone boat and a drone interceptor.
Intelligence and technology
35 US parts, a Chinese navigation unit, a Russian engine: what’s inside Russia’s Filin missile. Russia began firing the Filin at Ukraine in late summer. The firm that makes its onboard equipment also helps produce a Shahed-type drone.
Denmark puts a $112.6 million state guarantee behind the maker of Ukraine’s Flamingo missiles. Fire Point’s Danish fuel plant for its Flamingo cruise missiles is running late, and its estimated cost has roughly tripled.
Russia replaces its missiles as fast as it fires them, Ukrainian intelligence says. Its drone order this year tops 100,000. HUR calls the order a systematic bet on exhausting Ukraine’s air defense.
Romania shot down two drones it believes were Russia’s new Geran-4s. Europe isn’t ready for swarms of them, analyst warns. Analyst Fabian Hoffmann says jet-powered interceptors are one answer, but too few Western suppliers make the small engines they need.
Ukraine sends ground robot to string wire obstacles in open, taking its sappers out of kill zone. Ukraine hands one of the front’s deadliest jobs, stringing wire in the open, to a remote-controlled ground robot.
International
NATO’s weapons-buying agency opens dedicated door for Ukraine, non-member, letting it buy arms through its contracts and its firms bid for tenders. The agreement, signed by Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara, gives Ukraine a single entry point into 45 weapons programs.
Zelenskyy names three postwar security guarantees for Ukraine. Even Russia needs one of them, he says. He names NATO membership, direct US guarantees, and a European Coalition of the Willing as the paths under discussion.
Trump cannot get Putin to halt strikes on Ukraine’s power grid, so he blames Ukraine instead, Zelenskyy says. Before that, US officials had cut Kyiv off from US intelligence and lowered a speed cap on Starlink to pressure Ukraine.
Poland paused a military aid package over Lviv’s vote honoring WWII nationalists, Ukrainian source says. Polish ministry denies it. Warsaw has barred the councilor who proposed the resolution from the Schengen zone, and Poland’s defense minister wants Kyiv to distance itself.
War-hit Kyiv puts 85 European-funded buses on its streets. Here’s what riders find inside. Since 2022, the bank has provided 2 billion euros for emergency repairs to the country's infrastructure.
Humanitarian and social impact
Russian missiles and drones kill one and injure 24 in Kyiv, splitting its metro line in two. Hours after a Kremlin aide said Russia was ready in principle for new talks, prosecutors say Russia destroyed 13 homes in one Kyiv district.
Political and legal developments
From “bad-guy fleet” to “good-guy fleet”: US will let investors buy sanctioned tankers and return them to legal trade. Chris Wright puts the dark fleet at about 1,600 ships. Each would need US approval, on terms he didn’t spell out.
Read our earlier daily review here.