Andy Burnham has said he is very conscious of being the seventh Prime Minister in 10 years. Many of his predecessors have come unstuck in one way or another due to Brexit.
So it is perhaps little wonder that despite pledging not to “re-run” Brexit arguments in May this year when he was campaigning to be Makerfield MP, Burnham has effectively fired the starting pistol on another marathon of EU angst.
The Prime Minister kicked off this week with two Brexit bombshells. First he told Parliament that a much-vaunted Brexit reset deal “was on the table” and that he was ready to sign, and then poured salt on old wounds by claiming Russian interference in the 2016 referendum.
Monday’s announcement came with a date for the long-delayed UK-EU summit in Brussels on the Brexit reset – 20 November. It is hoped a deal will finally be signed, and the EU is poised to make considerable concessions to get it over the line, The i Paper can reveal.
Under-30s able to work in any job in Europe
Firstly, the EU is working on a plan to ensure British under-30s can work in any job in Europe under a planned youth mobility scheme that holds the key to unlocking the wider Brexit reset package of deals.
At the same time, hopes are rising further as some in the EU are beginning to contemplate delaying a demand for Britain to cut university tuition fees for European nationals coming to the UK under the scheme, which ministers have been fiercely resisting for more than a year.
While both issues are highly sensitive and remain in the balance in internal EU negotiations, movement in either area would make it much easier for the UK to sign up to the scheme, which would unlock further reset deals on food and drink trade, and aligning carbon markets.
At the same time, the Prime Minister was handed a major boost as France this week dropped its opposition to UK participation in the protectionist Made In Europe policy – which would otherwise lock the UK out of major European contracts – which was also holding up a deal.
The jigsaw pieces are now falling into place for a deal at the summit in Brussels on 20 November, which both sides hope can pave the way for closer ties in future, including the possibility of Britain rejoining the bloc.
Despite saying in that Makerfield by-election “I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU” and that “I respect the decision that was made at the referendum”, Burnham has since opened the door to much closer ties, including membership of the single market, customs union, or rejoining, after the next election.
It is understood that the mood music helped warm the EU into pushing towards a reset deal.
There had been fears that British young people’s access to the planned “youth experience” scheme could be more restricted than EU nationals coming to the UK, because the bloc’s member states, rather than Brussels, have the final say over who can be issued work visas.
Fears that work would be restricted
A UK industry insider told The i Paper they were worried that the youth experience deal could be “thinner” than previously envisaged, with EU countries looking to restrict the types of work available under the scheme, meaning young Britons in service and investment professional roles such as accountancy or architecture would not be able to access it.
They said they feared a more “limited” agreement that would cover activities such as studying, research, au-pairing, volunteering and travelling was more likely, particularly as the UK holds firm on tuition fees.
But the EU is negotiating a political agreement with member states that would make clear that there should be no restrictions on young Britons’ right to work in Europe if they access the scheme.
A UK source with close knowledge of the reset talks has indicated this would be acceptable to British negotiators even though a political agreement would not be legally binding, because they believe EU member states are unlikely to breach it.
Hopes in the UK will rise further as some in the EU are beginning to contemplate delaying demand for Britain to cut university tuition fees for European nationals coming here under the scheme.
While some member states are still putting “intense pressure” on EU negotiators to secure a reduction in UK tuition fees, sources from other countries believe the issue may have to be delayed to get a reset deal over the line at the 20 November summit.
One source said they have realised lucrative international fees are “too important” for British universities, while another said it may make sense for the EU to retain the demand on fees as a “bargaining chip” for future negotiations.
A separate EU source said that “all sides are trying to find a way out” of the impasse, while a UK Government source, who is not directly involved in talks, warned: “There is no way we are giving them home fees”.
“They [negotiators] will find a way through,” the UK source added.
Canada deal may provide a blueprint for the UK
The Franco-German opening of the door to a deal on Made In Europe – as long as Britain hikes tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) – will also raise expectations that the EU can ease UK fears over industries such as cars, nuclear power, wind turbines and other climate-friendly tech could be shut out of the scheme.
The EU has so far maintained that a formal deal on the policy would not be possible next month as the bloc has not finalised its own policy yet.
But an EU source said any deal struck between Canada and the bloc at a summit later in October may provide the basis for how the UK may be treated as a “trusted partner” under the plans.
“That will give a very good indication of what the UK can get,” the source said.
British industry is demanding action to safeguard the UK economy.
William Bain of the British Chambers of Commerce said: “Do you say you can’t resolve anything until you have a 100 per cent deal on that [Made In Europe]?
“Or do you do the pragmatic thing? And bank the deals you can make on growth, recognise the issues, look to a process, perhaps a political statement that can help both sides, and progress and move on.”
Reflecting on the progress of the talks, a senior UK source simply said the negotiations were going “very well”.
It stands in contrast to the row that is simmering over Burnham’s pledge to look at options for moving closer to the EU, including rejoining.
Closer ties still to come
Downing Street is still working out how Burnham plans to present his Brexit options and build consensus, with a major speech under consideration.
A No 10 source denied that Burnham had considered simply committing to putting rejoin in Labour’s next election manifesto in his party conference speech last month, before instead announcing his plan to explore the options.
Despite still working on next steps, the Prime Minister lit a fuse under the debate this week by highlighting Russian interference in the Brexit referendum, forcing him to clarify that he believes the vote to leave was legitimate and drawing fire from the Conservatives and Reform.
But the PM has been backed by Tory ex-Cabinet minister Dominic Grieve, who helmed the 2020 Russia report on Moscow’s political interference in the UK.
The Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) report found that the Government and intelligence services did nothing to investigate whether Russia tried to interfere in the 2016 referendum, while highlighting other instances of Moscow interference and influence, which it described as “the new normal” in the UK.
A request by the ISC for a retrospective assessment of the EU referendum was rejected by Boris Johnson’s Brexit-backing government as “not necessary”.
Grieve said he was unsurprised by Burnham’s comments, although he assumed that since he chaired the ISC, “some work has been done which reveals a bit more about what was happening”.
“And it’s a subject which, I suppose, the public is entitled to know about if indeed it has emerged, because we were asking as an ISC, and unless there are classified reasons why it shouldn’t be revealed, it should be revealed, it seems to me, to the public.”
Labour grandee warning over Brexit
The reappearance of these sorts of Brexit arguments this week prompted a warning from Labour grandee Ed Balls, who suggested Burnham would be making a mistake if he committed to rejoining the EU in Labour’s next election manifesto, saying he hoped the PM’s moves were “short-term vibes” rather than a “serious strategy”.
Senior Labour MPs told The i Paper that Burnham’s approach was at least partly driven by polling and analysis suggesting he could unite progressive voters by pledging to get closer to the EU, or even rejoining.
“I’m sure you’ve seen the MRP polls, it unites the left bloc vote and makes a huge difference,” an MP said.
But an ex-Cabinet minister urged the Prime Minister to set up a joint working group with the EU to explore the options, then present the trade-offs rather than having a debate “in the dark”.
They also criticised Labour MP Emily Thornberry for saying Brussels would be wary of accepting something that could be undone in a future general election, while also warning that another referendum could provide a precedent for a second Scottish independence vote.
They added: “Why would the EU negotiate an accession if at the next general election we could be back out?”
A UK Government spokesman said: “We are building an ambitious, close relationship with the EU that will strengthen our economy and create more opportunities for young people and communities across the whole UK.”