Bitcoin has fallen below $81,000 before recovering some ground, bringing $80,000 back into focus as Benjamin Cowen warns that a daily close below its 50-day moving average could send prices toward the bull market support band.
Summary
- Bitcoin’s daily low fell below $81,000, with CoinGecko later recording a recovery toward $81,300.
- Cowen tied his downside warning to a daily close below the 50-day simple moving average.
- Mr. Wall Street said he has buy orders between $72,000 and $76,000.
- A Polymarket screenshot showed 3% odds of Bitcoin reaching $130,000 during 2026.
CoinGecko showed Bitcoin fell to $80,989 after reaching $84,788 over the past 24 hours. BTC later recovered to $81,305, still down 3.5% on the day.
Bitcoin was then around 1.6% above $80,000, while its daily low was just $989 above that level.
Ether remained below $2,400 in CoinGecko’s separate snapshot. The provider recorded ETH at $2,380.48, down 4.4% over 24 hours, compared with Bitcoin’s smaller percentage decline. Both prices had recovered from the earlier figures accompanying the initial market update.
Bitcoin’s daily close is Cowen’s downside trigger
In an Oct. 22 X post, Benjamin Cowen tied his warning to Bitcoin’s closing price relative to the 50-day simple moving average.
“Bitcoin getting a daily close below the 50D SMA likely sends it to the bull market support band.”
His accompanying chart showed Bitcoin near $81,098 while the daily candle was still trading. The post therefore described a possible next move from an unfinished session, without confirming a completed breakdown.
Cowen said Ethereum, Strategy shares, the Nasdaq and the TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 crypto market indexes were already at their respective bull market support bands. He grouped several markets into the same technical assessment but did not provide separate numerical targets for them.
Earlier in October, crypto.news previously reported analyst warnings around the $82,000–$82,500 region. Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang had warned that losing that area could accelerate a decline toward $80,000.
The Oct. 16 coverage placed Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average at $81,279 at that time. Its chart reading is a historical reference, separate from the average Cowen was watching six days later.
Mr. Wall Street keeps buy orders below the market
A separate Oct. 22 post from the trader known as Mr. Wall Street described a more optimistic longer-term position despite the decline.
The trader said he was holding Bitcoin bought between $60,000 and $64,000 while describing the recent trading range as $80,000–$87,000. His stated purchase prices and holdings were self-reported.
He said he had buy orders between $72,000 and $76,000, conditional on the market reaching those levels. The post did not say that those orders had executed.
Using CoinGecko’s later $81,305.23 quote as the reference, the upper end of that buying range sat approximately 6.5% below the market. The lower end was around 11.4% below it.
Mr. Wall Street named $93,000 as his first upside target but gave no fixed date for reaching it. That target would require a gain of approximately 14.4% from the same reference price.
— Mr. Wall Street (@mrofwallstreet) October 22, 2026#BTC:
I am holding all the Bitcoin I bought at 60-64k while we trade in this boring 80-87k range. I have buy orders set at 72-76k if market makers are generous enough to allow such an opportunity. First target of $93,000 is coming when you least expect it.. pic.twitter.com/HE2O0dFvMI
His chart showed several horizontal price zones above and below Bitcoin, alongside planned spot purchases beneath the current range. The stated orders describe his intended positioning; the screenshot does not independently establish buying demand from other traders at those prices.
Earlier rebounds had left resistance unresolved
Bitcoin had already struggled to hold a recovery above $83,000 earlier in the week.
During the Oct. 20 stock rebound, Bitcoin briefly climbed above that level before retreating toward $82,600. The same coverage recorded gains in U.S. equities as oil prices eased.
Trader Ardi’s earlier assessment identified $84,200 as the threshold Bitcoin needed to clear to break its local bearish structure. He said he would consider long positions toward the top of the range after a move above that threshold.
U.S. fund demand had weakened during an earlier part of October. An Oct. 12 account of Bitcoin’s stalled recovery attempts cited Bitfinex Alpha figures showing weekly spot Bitcoin ETF inflows falling from approximately $2.39 billion in late September to $241.1 million for the period ending Oct. 2.
Bitfinex attributed repeated failures near $87,000 partly to insufficient spot buying despite activity in futures markets. The historical figures describe that earlier period and do not establish the cause of the Oct. 22 decline.
The 3% prediction concerns a $130,000 contract
The Kobeissi Letter pointed to weakening expectations for a much larger recovery in another Oct. 22 post.
Its screenshot displayed a Polymarket contract asking whether Bitcoin would hit $130,000 in 2026, with a displayed probability of 3%.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 22, 2026BREAKING: The market now sees a new low 3% chance of Bitcoin hitting a fresh record high this year.
In October 2025, Bitcoin was trading at $108,000, currently down -25% year-over-year.
Crypto is in need of its next catalyst. pic.twitter.com/rjfnvkcMuQ
The post described that reading as the chance of a fresh record high this year. However, the visible contract specified $130,000, so the screenshot directly supports the narrower price threshold.
The displayed market showed approximately $77.6 million in volume and a Dec. 31, 2026 end date.