Europe's hottest summer on record may have killed more than 50,000 people across 30 European countries, researchers have found, as they called on governments to reduce the use of fossil fuels.
Scientists from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine examined excess heat deaths in 854 cities in Europe from June 1 to August 31 this year, comparing it to data for the same period dating back to the year 2000.
The modelled death toll of 50,391 was the highest in the research covering the past 26 years, far in excess of the next highest in 2022, when about 29,000 excess heat-related deaths occurred and 2003, with around 18,000 excess deaths. The summers of 2022 and 2003 involved record-breaking heatwaves.
This summer, late June was especially severe, with almost a third of deaths happening from June 17 to July 1, when the daily mean temperature across Europe was more than 5°C above the 1991-2020 average.
The heat was a danger only for elderly people. An estimated 6,000 people under the age of 65 are thought to have died as a result of heatwaves during summer this year.
Cities in Europe's major economies had the highest total estimated heat-related deaths. The highest was in Italy, where 13,303 excess deaths from higher temperatures were recorded, followed by France (7,268), Spain (6,824), Germany (6,340) and the UK (4,354).
The study also analysed weather data and climate models to compare how summer temperatures have changed between today's climate and pre-industrial temperatures.
They found that two thirds of the excess heat deaths could be attributable of global warming, “primarily as the result of burning fossil fuels”. The findings were published as two peer-reviewed papers in the journal Nature Health on Friday.
Though the findings provide an estimate, the modelling method used has been found to produce results in line with the records of excess deaths published by national health authorities for previous heat waves.
Dr Claire Barnes, a co-author of the report from the Centre of Environmental Policy at University College London, called for “target interventions” to protect people in summers to come.
“These numbers are a stark reminder that our hotter, more extreme summers are having an increasingly severe impact on public health,” she said. “Behind these statistics are real people whose lives were lost and real families who grieve for them.”
The findings also reflected the “growing need to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels to slow the pace of change and limit future warming”.
The research comes as the UK government has approved the controversial Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea, in a move opposed by environmental campaigners.
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the move was needed to protect British consumers from rising energy costs. “At a time when people are really struggling, it's right that we look in a responsible way at maximising the existing energy reserves we have in Britain that could help.
“Even on our ambitious climate path, we’ll still require oil and gas as part of our energy needs for decades to come. That’s why we’re taking a pragmatic approach to the North Sea.”
The report's authors also called for cities to adapt to hotter weather. “It is becoming increasingly clear our cities are poorly adapted to rising heat and it is critical we improve our efforts towards adaptation,” said co-author Dr Pierre Masselot of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
“This means cooling the cities through more green spaces and less pollution, and providing health care for affected populations.”
The excess deaths and emergencies from heat also put additional strain on British hospitals, that was comparable to a “really bad winter virus season”, according to Prof Andrew Hartle, an intensive care consultant at the Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust. Hospital buildings and equipment have also not adapted to the heat, he added.
“Here in the UK, the summer is historically the quietest time for our health service. This summer, however, saw demand and strain that was akin to a really bad winter virus season.
“Patients already in hospital have also been overheating, with much of the UK’s hospital estate largely not built to withstand these temperatures, and there are serious risks to equipment from heat too,” he said.