What if Flávio Bolsonaro wins? High stakes for the environment in Brazil’s 2026 elections (commentary)

Fear and disbelief prevail among those in Brazil who are concerned about the environment. A climate denier and voluble supporter of dismantling Brazil’s environmental agencies may well be the country`s next president. Brazil’s current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (known simply as “Lula”) faces Flávio Bolsonaro, one of former president Jair Bolsonaro’s sons. In the first round of the election on October 4th neither reached the required 50% plus one vote needed, and they face each other in a runoff on October 25th. Flávio was two percentage points ahead for valid votes in a poll released on October 21st, although one poll released on October 18th showed Lula ahead by two points. Flávio’s father Jair Bolsonaro’s 2019-2022 term was an environmental disaster, and Flávio frequently claims that his father was the best president Brazil has ever had and that, if elected, he will bring back his father’s policies. Under Jair Bolsonaro the annual deforestation rate in the Amazon rose sharply, peaking in 2021. He made good on his promise not to demarcate “a single centimeter” of Indigenous land. He appointed openly anti-environmental figures to head the Ministry of the Environment and IBAMA (the Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources), who largely dismantled these agencies and blocked enforcement of environmental laws. Jair Bolsonaro’s constant rhetoric supporting illegal loggers, goldminers and deforesters resulted in surges of these activities, including in Indigenous areas. Most notorious was the invasion of the Yanomami Indigenous Land by over 20,000 goldminers who converted…This article was originally published on Mongabay