While the Colorado Buffaloes’ upset chances aren’t as much of a long shot on Saturday against the Oklahoma State Cowboys as they have been in their previous two matchups, but it would still be an upset nonetheless.
Colorado has just a 21.7 percent chance to win according to ESPN Analytics, only a slight uptick from the chances the Buffaloes were given to beat the then-No. 11 Utah Utes and then-No. 12 Texas Tech Red Raiders. But if Colorado hopes to prove those odds wrong, it’ll need to deliver on these three keys against the Cowboys.
Disrupt Drew Mestemaker with pass rush
The Buffaloes’ primary focus will need to be on shutting down the Cowboys’ offense. It is the fifth-highest scoring offense in the Big 12, sporting the conference's top passing attack as well.
Colorado’s defense has been its calling card this year, though, and it stacks up well against quarterback Drew Mestemaker and company. More specifically, Colorado’s defensive line is more than capable of having a major impact on the game.
The Buffaloes’ defensive line, led by Santana Hopper and a returning Lamont Lester Jr., has been disruptive against every team it's played this season, with the exception of the Northwestern Wildcats. The Buffaloes believe that their defensive line can be the thing to disrupt Mestemaker and force him to make bad decisions.
“[Our mentality is to] just really pressure the quarterback and make him uncomfortable,” said Colorado defensive lineman Dylan Manuel during his Tuesday presser. “Because when he has pressure in his face, he’s not really good. He gets out of character. So just putting pressure on him, making him uncomfortable and not just letting him sit back there and dial us up.”
No costly turnovers from Isaac Wilson
Colorado will also need a good performance from its quarterback. But that also doesn’t mean he needs to win the game for the Buffaloes. Wilson’s job at this point is merely to get the ball in the hands of Colorado’s premier playmakers at the skill positions and not lose it the game with costly errors.
Wilson’s interception problem is well-established at this point, as the Buffaloes’ last two upset bids have been spoiled by untimely interceptions thrown by Wilson in back-to-back weeks. If Colorado has any hope of keeping up with an offense the caliber of Oklahoma State’s, it can’t afford any mistakes.
Sound coverage in the secondary
Finally, Colorado needs a good game from its secondary. Similarly to Wilson, it isn’t on the secondary to go out and win the game for the Buffaloes. Instead, it is merely their job to hang around with Oklahoma State’s passing attack and allow the defensive line to force mistakes.
This primarily means not getting beat deep, as some of Colorado’s top defensive backs were getting blown by on deep routes by the Utes in Week 7, which was a catalyst for much of their offense.
That even included stars like Boo Carter, Randon Fontenette and Naeten Mitchell, who all succumbed to mental errors or poor reads on deep routes at least a few times during that game.
If Colorado’s secondary can punch above its weight, though, it could turn the game on its head. If it becomes enough of an issue for Mestemaker, Oklahoma State may be forced to become more one-dimensional and lean on its run game. That works in CU’s favor, because when it come to the rushing attack, the Cowboys are towards the middle of the pack in the Big 12.
If Colorado can isolate the weaker half of the Cowboys’ offense, they’ll have a much easier time keeping pace.
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