As the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen continues to escalate, Saudi Arabia's most important national priorities are increasingly at risk. On Tuesday, the Houthis hit the headquarters of Aramco, the Saudi state-owned oil company in Dhahran. On Wednesday, the Houthis vowed to continue attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, and on Thursday a cruise missile was intercepted over the Medina region. While it remains unclear who launched it, the mere attempt raises questions about Saudi Arabia's role as guardian of Islam's holiest places, the Saudi cities of Mecca and Medina.
Following last weekend's Houthi attacks that killed more than a dozen people and injured more than 300 at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, tourists and potential investors are keenly aware of the growing uncertainty over travel and security in the kingdom.
Several airlines suspended flights to Riyadh and the airport was expected to remain closed through at least October 17, according to media reports published earlier this week. Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative, an economic summit that usually draws foreign leaders and key players in business to the country, plans to offer remote participation instead of hosting attendees on site.
"The hostilities between the Houthis and the Saudi government challenge Riyadh's image of stability and security amid the wider US-Iran war," said Timothy E. Kaldas, deputy director of the Washington-based think tank Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.
"The attacks on Saudi Arabia also threaten Riyadh's efforts to diversify the economy," Kaldas told DW, noting that these ambitions depend on potential tourists viewing the kingdom as a safe destination.
Since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran in February, Tehran, and later the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, have been targeting Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the United States. Saudi Arabia also supports the Yemeni government in its fight against the Houthis with airstrikes in Houthi-held areas of Yemen.
Houthi attacks are a blow to Saudi Arabia's ambitions
A decade ago, Saudi Arabia launched Vision 2030, a sweeping economic and social reform plan, to reduce the kingdom's reliance on oil and transform its economy and society.
"Saudi Arabia is pursuing a highly nationalist 'Saudi-First' policy, aimed at propelling the nation to the global forefront as an aviation power, a hub for artificial intelligence and a major tourism destination," Simon Wolfgang Fuchs, a professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told DW.
Fuchs views the Houthi attacks as a significant blow to these ambitions and the financial resources available to pursue them.
Pauline Raabe, a senior analyst at the Berlin-based Middle East Minds think tank, points out that Saudi Arabia urgently needs to find a solution that shields its population from the conflict while limiting the economic damage and reputational costs.
"It is a race against time," she told DW, even though the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is no new occurence. Saudi Arabia supported the Yemeni government in its war against the Houthis between 2015 and 2022.
"The conflict has been flaring up again with renewed intensity due to the general situation in the Gulf and is as such actually a tightening of the status quo," Raabe said.
However, she views Saudi Arabia's loss of authority as a threat on the horizon. "In the short term, Saudi Arabia is a belligerent [player] in a region ravaged by conflict," she said.
Symbolic support from partners like Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt
Fuchs agrees.
"Riyadh remains a key player through its investments, its position as the world's largest oil exporter and its role as custodian of Islam's holy sites in Mecca and Medina," he said, adding that "by virtue of this role, Saudi Arabia can count on allies and call for the formation of alliances."
In August, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. While the latter two have since offered intelligence and defense support for Saudi Arabia, they also made clear that they will not put boots on the ground in Yemen. France and the United Kingdom also offered limited defense support for Riyadh. Egypt, the most populous Arab country with a Sunni majority like Saudi Arabia, voiced verbal support.
"Riyadh is prioritizing the symbolic value of these countries, projecting an image of strong ties with regional powers," Kaldas said.
However, much attention has focused on Saudi Arabia's failure to secure defense support from the United States, he added. While Saudi Arabia's closest ally — the US signaled willingness to support Riyadh with intelligence sharing and targeting assistance against the Houthis — Washington has so far stopped short of committing US forces to direct strikes. For Saudi Arabia, the understanding is therefore that the US prioritzes avoiding opening another front in the regional conflict against Iran.
Saudi Arabia on the backfoot in the war against the Houthis
Edited by: Carla Bleiker