ANN ARBOR, MI — Indiana football needed overtime to survive Michigan after being outscored in the second half and a last-second field goal forced the extra frame.
Still, the No. 6 Hoosiers won 13-6 for their first win at the Big House since 1967. IU (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) also keeps its College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Let's address overreactions:
Hoosiers have to get offense fixed
Indiana just about survived Saturday, despite its offense's best efforts.
We'll talk more about that in a minute, but big picture first: This team has to have more from its offense if it's going to get anywhere near its regular- or postseason goals this year. Against a first-year quarterback and a limited offense, IU found just enough to win Saturday, but the Hoosiers won't get away with this again. And they look a long way from their best heading into Halloween.
The offense is the biggest obstacle to IU's CFP return
This looks increasingly like a reasonable position, rather than an overreaction.
The first half saw Mike Shanahan's unit handed multiple short fields, with no touchdowns to show for it. Josh Hoover jogged off at halftime just 7 of 16 passing, and while the run game (4.3 yards per carry in the first half) looked better than in recent weeks, it was not good enough to carry or compensate for the Hoosiers' problems passing the ball.
This defense will be good enough to keep Indiana in just about any game. This offense is presently nowhere near good enough to win the ones that will make the difference for the Hoosiers.
For Indiana, Saturday proved that painfully.
Rewind: Indiana survives Michigan's test in overtime
Indiana gets right on turnover luck
It's the greatest variance stat in football, one that's worked against IU's otherwise outstanding defense so far this fall. Teams can do all the disruptive things that break apart an offense, and get hard luck with deflections, bounces, etc.
To wit: Indiana entered Saturday the only team in the Big Ten yet to recover a fumble, despite having forced six. That rectified itself when Isaiah Jones fell on Tommy Carr's mispitch in the first quarter. And that luck improved again in the second, when A.J. Harris' excellent play on the ball on a Carr pass led to a deflection that flipped almost perfectly into the path of Amare Ferrell.
It's not an overreaction to say IU's defense earned more turnover luck than it enjoyed through its first seven games. Some of that came back around Saturday.
History lesson: Big House of horrors? Why IU football's trip to Michigan could set course for rest of season
Tobi Osunsanmi will be an All-American
This looks less like overreaction with every passing week. The Kansas State transfer posted 2 sacks Saturday, taking his season total to 9. His read on a third-down play action call at the goal line forced a Michigan field goal try when it looked like the Wolverines were about to punch the ball in for a touchdown.
We've talked so much about Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt this season, and how their unexpected return strengthened this defense. Perhaps no one has benefitted more than the player who lines up opposite them, and has often proved unblockable one on one as Big Ten play has intensified.
This defense is championship caliber
The offense certainly is not, at least not right now. But Indiana's defense pitched a complete game Saturday, all the way up through the overtime period, at a level that suggests that unit is prepared to win games in January again.
Whether the offense can catch up we'll see. But 57 rushing yards, four sacks, 10 TFLs and two turnovers on the road in the Big House is championship-level defense, no matter the circumstances.
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This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana football's CFP hopes hinge on fixing offense, OT win vs Michigan shows | Overreactions