Russia’s growing Rassvet satellite network could eventually allow its forces to control long-range drones over Ukraine in real time, a former senior Ukrainian intelligence official warned on Tuesday, Oct. 13.
Major General Ilya Pavlenko, who served as deputy chief of the Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) from 2015 to 2020, made the remarks in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
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He cautioned against writing off the project because of problems with its first satellites, arguing that the real question is whether Moscow can make the system reliable enough to support regular military communications over Ukraine. The network, he said, could also be used as another tool for hybrid warfare against NATO countries.
“For Europeans, this is a direct threat,” Pavlenko said, explaining that Russia is moving its jet drone factories underground. This could further limit Ukraine’s ability to break manufacturing cycles or destroy the drones – already hard to intercept due to their speed – before they can even be deployed.
“Fitted with a compact Rassvet terminal, such a drone, launched from a civilian vessel in the English Channel or from a rented trailer in Europe, will be able to strike targets in London or Paris unhindered, controlled directly from the Kremlin,” Pavlenko continued, arguing that Europe simply does not have enough Patriot interceptors to repel Russia’s large-scale attacks conducted by cheap satellite drones.
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Rassvet – Russia’s domestic attempt of Starlink
Built by the Russian company Bureau 1440, Rassvet is a low-orbit satellite broadband service that users can connect to through dedicated terminals that relay data to satellites overhead.
As such satellites sit far closer to Earth than geostationary ones, the signal’s travel time is significantly shorter, which could improve performance. According to Pavlenko, a satellite at about 500 kilometers (approximately 311 miles) could offer delays of roughly 30 milliseconds, compared with close to 70 at the planned 800 (roughly 497 miles).
The only trade-off is that each satellite passes quickly over any given spot, so continuous coverage of a large area requires hundreds of them. Higher orbit, although with possible delays in speed, could allow each satellite to cover more ground.
Bureau 1440 says the finished system will operate at an altitude of about 800 kilometers (497 miles), deliver speeds of up to 1 Gbps with delays of up to 70 milliseconds, and use 5G non-terrestrial network standards and laser links between satellites.
Actual speeds in combat would also depend on network load, routing, ground stations and the number of users sharing a channel, Pavlenko noted, so the advertised 1 Gbps should not be read as what each terminal will receive.
Kyiv Post could not independently verify these figures.
Russia carried out two launches of 16 Rassvet-3 satellites each in 2026, both on Soyuz-2.1b rockets from the Plesetsk cosmodrome. However, not all of the roughly 32 spacecraft are working as intended, Pavlenko said; one dropped out of its orbit, while others failed to climb to their planned altitude.
Moscow aims to launch 292 satellites in 2027 and 924 by 2035, according to The Moscow Times.
What this means for Ukraine
Russia’s push for its own satellite system sped up after it launched its full-scale invasion against Ukraine in February 2022, particularly because Starlink proved its value to Ukrainian Defense Forces on the battlefield.
For the Russian military, a secure satellite link would mean sharing data between units, streaming video and reaching platforms operating beyond ground networks.
A small constellation can still be military useful, Pavlenko said. Even without constant coverage, a satellite passing over the right area at the right time opens a short “access window” that may be enough to send a video feed, issue a command or adjust a drone’s mission.
That scenario has already been tested, according to Ukrainian intelligence sources cited by Janes in August 2026, who said Russia used its first batch of Rassvet satellites to communicate over Ukraine for several hours.
The biggest concern is drones. Most Russian long-range drones today fly preset routes or rely on civilian mobile networks via a SIM card. With a satellite link, an operator could watch live footage and change a drone’s course or target mid-flight.
Pavlenko said large strike drones, particularly jet-powered models, are the most likely candidates since they can carry the necessary terminals.
Russia began using jet-powered drones extensively in recent months, as they can reach speeds of up to 400-600 kilometers per hour (roughly 250-370 miles per hour), making them significantly harder to intercept.
He identified three main risks for Ukraine: drones gaining a communication channel independent of ground networks, better coordination between dispersed units, and smaller future terminals that could fit on more types of weapons.
There are limits, however. Each drone would need a compatible terminal, antenna, power supply and software, and a satellite link alone would not improve navigation or protect a drone from electronic warfare or air defenses.
Countering the system
Jamming Rassvet will not be so simple, Pavlenko said, noting that effective countermeasures require detailed knowledge of its frequencies, protocols and terminal design – much of which is not public.
Terminals with electronically steered antennas can track satellites quickly and hold a steadier connection, while reprogrammable chips let engineers update satellites with new software after launch.
And shooting down satellites is not much easier. A large constellation can absorb the loss of a few spacecraft, and destroying them creates debris that endangers other objects in orbit, Pavlenko said.
On Aug. 28, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced that Kyiv has petitioned the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to exclude Ukraine’s territory from the service areas of Rassvet, arguing that the system is used solely to support Russia’s war effort.
“The purpose for Russia to use such satellites over the territory of Ukraine is absolutely clear and it has nothing to do with civilian purposes,” Sybiha said, adding that Moscow intends to use the system to support its war effort and commit “genocidal crimes.”
The following day, the Digital Transformation Ministry, the Foreign Ministry and the Ukrainian State Center of Radio Frequencies filed objections to the Rassvet-1 and Rassvet-3 systems.
Nonetheless, Pavlenko acknowledged that the ITU cannot enforce its decisions. But, if Rassvet’s registration were to be revoked, the system would effectively operate illegally, strengthening the case for jamming it and striking its ground infrastructure.
Risks beyond Ukraine’s frontline
Rassvet’s reach could extend well beyond Ukraine’s frontline, Pavlenko said, warning that Russia is planning to sell the system’s access in 70 countries across the Global South.
This could essentially put the service in the hands of criminal groups, including Somali pirates using unmanned boats against merchant ships and Latin American cartels trying to evade US surveillance.
Ukrainian intelligence also believes Russia deliberately registered Rassvet on frequencies that overlap with Iridium, a satellite system used by the Pentagon. If so, any Western attempt to jam Rassvet could disrupt allied military communications as well.
China’s growing role
Amid sweeping sanctions imposed by the EU, Russia has already shifted from Western components obtained through grey-market channels to primarily Chinese electronics.
That is a demanding switch for space hardware, which must withstand radiation and extreme temperatures and cannot be repaired after launch. New components would also mean reworking software and testing equipment, Pavlenko said.
Beyond sales, Beijing gains much from the arrangement as Russia’s war offers a live testing ground for Chinese technology and imposes a steady demand for electronics, optics and communications gear.
Pavlenko singled out Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics, a Chinese chipmaker the US Commerce Department added to its Entity List in September 2025 for supplying technology to Russian military end users. There is no evidence, however, that its components are used in Rassvet satellites.
He also linked the acceleration of Russia’s defense industry to Andrei Belousov, who became defense minister in May 2024.
According to Pavlenko, Belousov was given authority over the wider defense industry and reoriented it toward Chinese chips, optics, thermal imagers and carbon fiber.
He claimed that 90% of the Russian defense sector’s financial settlements now run through the yuan and Chinese banks, although the figure could not be independently verified.
President Volodymyr Zelensky separately warned on Monday, Oct. 12, that Beijing is assisting Russia’s efforts in building Rassvet.
“We know that China works on satellites, works on the possibility of helping Russia with a system similar to Starlink,” he told the Financial Times, adding that “they are getting closer, and they are passing it on to Russia.”
A delegation of bipartisan US lawmakers has backed expanding Ukraine’s access to SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network and urged an effort to win over the company’s owner, Elon Musk, during their visit to Kyiv on Oct. 9.
Musk has repeatedly refused to allow its use inside Russia over fears of nuclear escalation.
Currently, SpaceX allows Ukraine to use Starlink on Ukrainian-controlled territory, including Russian-occupied areas such as Crimea. However, the service inside Russia is completely blocked.