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Wall Street is telling Anthropic and OpenAI that they had better launch their blockbuster IPOs sooner rather than later – and it goes well beyond the risks of an AI bubble, On The Money has learned.
The mounting worry among big investors, insiders say, is the threat of a left-wing takeover of Congress, conjuring nightmare scenarios of Democratic Socialists on Capitol Hill looking to throttle deals as they grill tech executives over everything from AI-sparked job losses to deepfakes.
“It will be years of hearings, investigations and nonstop turmoil,” one major Wall Street deal lawyer said. “We’re advising that people do their IPOs before the end of the year before things get crazy.”
Anthropic, as we have been reporting, will likely release its official offering statement or S-1 any day now in preparation for an IPO before Thanksgiving.
The bigger worry is around OpenAI, whose CEO Sam Altman said last month that the company isn’t planning to go public until next year, partly citing concerns about AI safety.
Now, Wall Street bigs say the owner of ChatGPT will be urgently advised to do its deal sometime after but before Jan. 3 when the Dems will officially take over if they prevail in the November election.
“We’ve been consistent in saying that we have not set a timeline for an IPO,” an OpenAI spokesperson said. “Last month our CEO made clear that the priority is safety, and that we will not going public this year.”
Reps for Anthropic had no immediate comment.
Also looming is a “monster” secondary stock offering by Meta, the holding company of social-media giant Facebook, to bankroll its AI buildout, as first reported by On The Money. It could also happen in the coming months.
Of course, it could be that even Anthropic gets cold feet and delays its IPO given investor fears we have reached peak AI valuations. It’s likewise possible that the GOP weathers next month and keeps both chambers despite President Trump’s unpopularity.
If the Dems do win both chambers — as polls suggest is highly plausible — the result could be what’s known as legislative gridlock since Trump would still control the White House. Generally speaking, markets love gridlock; Washington will be so busy arguing that it can’t get anything done that could screw things up.
Or so the theory goes. Here’s why that traditional pollyannaish view might not apply this November: Many of the incoming Dems aren’t what you’d call mainstream politicians who search for ways to cut deals with the administration.
Instead, they hail from the extreme left. Some are outright socialists who want to burn the system down altogether rather than work within its contours. They are promising the fiercest opposition to Trump that this country has ever seen.
The risk of attacks on Trump – and his position advocating AI expansion – will be front and center. Recall, even GOP congressional contenders have tweaked their positions in close races on AI, no longer parroting the administration’s growth-at-all-costs mantra.
Many, like their Dem opponents, are now calling for a slowdown in the AI infrastructure buildout, demanding that companies provide real benefits to communities where large data centers are proposed so they don’t eat up massive amounts of power and deplete the water supply.
The whisper number on Wall Street is that the House is gone to the Dems. They have a nearly 70% chance of winning the Senate, with Michigan being a toss up slightly favoring Dem candidate Abdul El-Sayed over GOP candidate Mike Rogers.
In Texas, Dem James Talarico is ahead slightly in the Senate race. His opponent Ken Paxton is fumbling badly, though he could pull out a win if he can ride the coattails of Greg Abbott who is seeking re-election as the state’s governor.
But any GOP wins, while not impossible, won’t be easy. That’s why the word to AI heavyweights is to act now.