Republican Senator Susan Collins’ chances of defeating Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in the Maine Senate race could hinge on voters who supported her in the past but also backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
These ticket-splitters could be decisive in the Maine Senate race, which has emerged as one of the handful of Senate races that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans win control of the Senate in the November 3 elections.
Polling points to a close race in the Pine Tree State. Although Maine generally leans toward Democrats, Collins has been able to win reelection in the past due to her personal popularity and moderate image. But Democrats believe she may be vulnerable this year, as President Donald Trump’s unpopularity fuels a more challenging national environment for the GOP.
Collins is an anomaly in the Senate, being the only Republican representing a state won by Harris in the 2024 election. In fact, she is the only senator from either party representing a state that has consistently voted against her party on the presidential level.
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The electorate is expected to be even bluer this year. Historically, midterm turnout is generally higher among the party not in the White House. These midterm dynamics and the partisan lean of Maine mean Collins must win a significant number of Harris voters this year.
A key group to watch will be pro-choice women, who have supported Collins in the past but may be less willing to do so following her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade, James Melcher, professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington, told Newsweek.
“2020 cut Collins’ margin from 2014 from a 30+ point win to 9 points. This race will look far more like 2020 than 2014. Collins lost a lot of Democrats and independents,” he said.
Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email.
Maine Senate Race Could Rest on Ticket Splitters
Ticket splitters are going to be a powerful force in Maine this year.
Collins will have to win some voters who are also backing Democrat Hannah Pingree in the gubernatorial race. Polling suggests Pingree is a heavy favorite to win the race against Republican Bobby Charles and independent Rick Bennett.
Mark Brewer, a professor of political science at the University of Maine in Orono, told Newsweek these ticket splitters are likely to be moderates from both parties “who are turned off by both DSA and MAGA types.”
These voters could be swayed on “competence” and an “ability to get things done,” he added.
“Jackson would need to be able to make the case for his accomplishments in Maine state government, which he hasn't spent much time doing thus far,” Brewer said.
Independents and Women: Maine Ticket Splitters Who Could Decide Election
Polling suggests that while partisan voters are voting for their party and independents are in play in this year’s Senate race.
While independents are closely divided in the Senate race, Pingree is winning them by a comfortable margin in the three-way gubernatorial race.
In a recent YouGov/CBS News poll, Jackson led independent voters by 7 points, 53 percent to 46 percent, while Pingree held a 19-point lead among independents, 59 percent to 40 percent.
A survey from Suffolk University gave Collins a 3-point lead among independents, 47 percent to 44 percent. But at the same time, Pingree held a large lead with 47 percent to Charles’ 32 percent and Bennett’s 13 percent.
The Suffolk poll surveyed 500 Maine voters from October 8 to 11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, while the YouGov/CBS poll surveyed 1,144 registered voters from September 23 to October 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
Women are also going to be an important voting bloc in the election. In 2020, when Collins last won reelection, she won women by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent over Democrat Sara Gideon, according to CNN exit polling data.
At the same time, former President Joe Biden won women by more than 20 points, 61 percent to 38 percent, against Trump. Exit polling data for Maine in the 2024 election is not available.
Polling suggests Collins is losing women to Jackson but still outperforming other Republicans. A critical question facing her campaign in the final weeks is whether she can lock up support from undecided moderate women who usually vote for Democrats, but have also voted for her in the past.
The Suffolk poll found Collins trailing Jackson by 7 points among women, 52 percent to 43 percent, but Pingree led women by 17 points, 52 percent to 35 percent. The YouGov poll showed Jackson up 10 points among women, 55 percent to 45 percent, while Pingree led by 23 points, 61 percent to 38 percent.
What Latest Polls Show About the Maine Senate Race
Polling suggests the Maine Senate race will be one of the most competitive of the midterms.
The Suffolk poll gave Jackson a 2-point lead, 49 percent to 47 percent, while the two were tied in the YouGov/CBS poll, each receiving support from 50 percent of respondents.
Jackson led by 4 points in another recent poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University, conducted among 800 likely voters from September 30 to October 5. It found Jackson with 50 percent support, while 46 percent of respondents said they would vote for Collins. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
However, polling underestimated Collins in her 2020 reelection bid. She trailed Democrat Sara Gideon in most surveys but went on to win her reelection with a slim majority of the vote. Polling errors are not necessarily repeated from cycle-to-cycle, but whether a similar miss will occur this year remains a question hanging over the campaign.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up.
Why the Maine Senate Race Matters in the 2026 Midterms
The Maine Senate race has national implications.
Currently, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control of the chamber, as Vice President JD Vance would serve as tiebreaker in a tie.
Maine is seen as one of Democrats’ top pick up opportunities to flip a GOP-held seat given the state’s Democratic lean and the overall national environment favoring Democrats. Failing to flip Maine would narrow Democrats’ path to a Senate majority. They would have to make up for that loss in a double-digit Trump seat, which would be seen as a tougher lift.
What Prediction Markets Show
Jackson was narrowly ahead of Collins in prediction markets on Monday, having a 62 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and a 63 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
Maine Senate Race: Latest Developments
Collins and Jackson faced off last week in the final two debates in Maine.
The final debate was briefly interrupted by a data center protester as Collins was speaking, to which the Republican senator said, “This is obviously one of Troy’s supporters.” Jackson responded, “Oh, shut up. I don’t even know that kid.”
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Jackson’s remark drew some criticism from Collins. Jackson declined to apologize during an interview on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday.
“I’ve had four debates with Senator Collins. I’ve shook her hand afterwards every time. What I’m not going to be is talked down to by Senator Collins, I’m not going to be accused of things like that. I’m fighting for Mainers and I just think that was another situation where she was talking down to me so I’m not going to apologize for that,” he said.
Last week, Jackson’s campaign filed its first financial disclosure form with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), which showed that Jackson outraised Collins four-to-one in the most recent quarter, though he remains behind in overall fundraising and outside assistance.
Former President Barack Obama recently endorsed Jackson, while Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, traveled to the state to campaign with him over the weekend.
Trump has also floated the idea of visiting Maine ahead of the midterms in remarks to reporters, though Collins said during an earlier debate she does not believe the president will visit the state.
"I’ve heard nothing from his office, and I’m not exactly his favorite senator," she said. "I would say that he is not coming to Maine."
Maine Voting: What to Know
In-person absentee voting began on October 5 and will continue until October 29, according to the Maine secretary of state’s office. More than 70,000 Mainers had requested an absentee ballot as of October 2, according to the office.
Polling locations are open between 6 a.m. or 10 a.m. to 8 p.m., depending on a town’s population, according to the secretary of state’s office.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Anthony Murray and Jason Lemon.