California could face a stormier winter as El Niño steers frequent weather systems toward the Golden State, bringing an increased chance of flooding, landslides and heavy Sierra Nevada snow.
The climate pattern is expected to favor a more dominant southern storm track, bringing rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow to the state, one expert told Newsweek.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally recurring climate pattern associated with warmer waters in the Pacific that can influence temperatures and rainfall worldwide.
In the U.S., typical El Niño effects can include wetter conditions across the South and warmer, drier conditions in the North during winter.
A forecast issued earlier this month indicated that El Niño is set to continue intensifying throughout the rest of 2026, with chances remaining high for it to become the strongest on record since 1950.
The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Center said on October 8 that there remained a greater than 83 percent chance of a "strong-to-very strong" El Niño event through January-March 2027
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More Dominant Southern Storm Track
El Niño will likely bring frequent storms to California due to a more dominant southern storm track, AccuWeather meteorologist Peyton Simmers told Newsweek on Wednesday.
Those could be strong, with multiple atmospheric rivers anticipated across the states, Simmers added. Atmospheric rivers are “relatively long, narrow regions in the atmosphere—like rivers in the sky,” according to the NWS. When they make landfall, they can release water vapor as snow or rain, the agency says.
“These can lead to flooding rainfall, heavy mountain snow and landslides,” Simmers said. “With the frequent storms, it will lead to an increased risk of flooding and heavy rain being above the historical average.”
In terms of temperatures, Simmers said California would likely remain close to or just above the historic average in northern portions of the state, while southern parts could see slightly cooler-than-average conditions amid the possibility of frequent storms.
The multiple storms and atmospheric rivers could also bring up to a foot of snow at a time across the Sierra Nevada mountain range, according to Simmers.
“Snow is expected to be above average this winter for most of the Sierra Nevada range,” the meteorologist said.
As for whether El Niño’s effects are likely to differ between northern and southern portions of the state, Simmers said the storm track can begin with a more focus across Central and Northern California before shifting to Southern California, including Los Angeles and San Diego.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly and Dave Siminoff.