Key Facts
- Turnout: 19.5% to 19.8% of voters by 10:00 CET (5:00 a.m. ET), about double 2023.
- Early count: 12% by 09:00 CET (4:00 a.m. ET), against about 5% at that hour in 2023.
- Polls: Open until 20:00 CET (3:00 p.m. ET) for 250 seats; 18 lists, 3% threshold.
- Kosovo: Some Serbs from Kosovo face journeys of over 150 km to vote in four Serbian towns.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) prices Student List 62%, SNS-led list 41% to win, 6:20 a.m. ET.
Turnout in Serbia’s snap parliamentary election ran at about double the 2023 pace in the first three hours of voting, according to two independent counts. About one in five registered voters had cast a ballot by 10:00 CET (5:00 a.m. ET), CRTA and Ipsos reported.
Serbians are choosing all 250 seats of the National Assembly on Sunday 25 October, in a contest between President Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling camp and a student-led list. Our election-day report and Saturday preview explain what is at stake.
Turnout Runs Far Above 2023
Ipsos and CeSID, a polling firm and a Serbian election-monitoring group, estimated turnout at 12% by 09:00 CET (4:00 a.m. ET). CeSID put the figure at the same hour in 2023 at about 5%.
An hour later, the monitoring group CRTA reported 19.8% by 10:00 CET (5:00 a.m. ET), against 9.8% at the same hour in 2023. Ipsos gave a slightly lower 19.5% for 10:00 CET.
Queues and Late Openings
The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), the state body that runs the vote, said polling stations opened on time. Some started a little late because of heavy interest, according to RIK president Vladimir Dimitrijević.
Serbian outlets reported long queues before polls opened, including in Novi Sad. Election monitors logged more than 70 reports of irregularities by 09:00 CET, Nova.rs reported.
Kosovo Serbs Travel Far to Vote
Kurir reported that Pristina does not allow voting in Serbian-run stations in Kosovo, so RIK opened stations in the Serbian towns of Raška, Tutin, Vranje and Kuršumlija. For some voters that means a journey of more than 150 kilometres one way.
Cars queued at the Brnjak crossing from about 06:00 CET, Kurir said. North Mitrovica has 14,709 registered voters and Zvečan 5,488.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, the Student List was priced at 62% to win the parliamentary election and the SNS-led list, Vučić’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party, at 41%, at 6:20 a.m. ET on 25 October. On Polymarket, the Student List stood at 61% in a winner market with about US$6.0 million traded.
A separate Polymarket market on final turnout gave 75% to a turnout of 70% or more. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and all of these prices are last-traded bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you follow European politics from the United States, a high turnout in a Balkan state signals a vote that many Serbians see as decisive. The result will shape how Serbia balances its ties with Western institutions, Russia and China.
Early turnout is only a guide, because morning figures do not show which list voters chose. Watch the updates later today and the first projections after polls close at 20:00 CET (3:00 p.m. ET).
What Is Not Known
RIK publishes the official turnout during the day, and its figures can differ from these independent estimates. Nothing yet shows which list the early voters favour.
The winner and the size of any majority are unknown. RIK has up to 96 hours after polls close to publish the official result.
Sources
The Rio Times Serbia election updates · Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia · CRTA · N1 · Republika · Kurir · Kalshi · Polymarket
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Free · Any country in the world · Prediction markets
Want prediction market reports on your country?
Pick any country in the world. Your report arrives the moment you confirm, then every Sunday: what the markets say about elections, currencies and policy there, with volumes and plain-English explanations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was turnout in Serbia’s election by 10:00 CET?
CRTA reported 19.8% and Ipsos 19.5% by 10:00 CET (5:00 a.m. ET) on 25 October 2026. CRTA put the same-hour figure in 2023 at 9.8%.
When do polls close in Serbia’s election?
Polls close at 20:00 CET on Sunday 25 October 2026, which is 3:00 p.m. ET. RIK has up to 96 hours after that to publish the official result.
Who is competing in Serbia’s parliamentary election?
Eighteen lists are running for 250 seats. The main contest is between President Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling camp and the student-led Student List.
What do prediction markets say about the vote?
On Kalshi, the Student List was priced at 62% and the SNS-led list at 41% to win at 6:20 a.m. ET on 25 October. These are last-traded bets, not polls or forecasts.
The Rio Times · Power Map
See who really holds power in Latin America
Click to open the Power Map →