The final Maariv election poll, published Friday morning, shows a six-seat gap between the political blocs, alongside a close race between the two largest parties.
According to the poll, conducted by the Lazar Research Institute, the Yashar party leads with 21 seats, just two ahead of Likud, which receives 19. However, the picture changes when the results are divided into political blocs: the anti-Netanyahu bloc, excluding the Arab parties, receives 54 seats, while the right-wing bloc receives 48.
One of the key findings of the poll concerns the Reservists and Economic Party, which manages to cross the electoral threshold and receives four seats. According to the data, its margin of support above the electoral threshold is narrow, meaning that even a relatively small change in its level of support could alter the distribution of seats in the Knesset.
According to the poll results, the third-largest party is Beyachad, with 15 seats. It is followed by the Democrats with ten seats, while the Joint List receives nine.
Yisrael Beytenu and Shas receive eight seats each. United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the Religious Zionism and Zehut list each receive seven seats. Ra'am stands at five seats, while the Reservists and Economic Party receives four, as noted.
Below the electoral threshold is the Amcha Yisrael party, which receives 3% of the vote in the poll. The Haredi Public Party receives 0.9% support, while Noam LeYisrael receives 0.5%.
Alongside the distribution of seats, the poll indicates a further increase in the public's willingness to participate in the elections. Of the Israelis surveyed, 81% said they were certain they would vote on Tuesday. This is higher than the voter turnout recorded in the 2022 Knesset elections, which stood at 71%.
Another question examined in the poll concerned the possibility that the elections would end without a clear victory for either bloc. In such a scenario, a majority of respondents prefer the formation of a unity government over holding another election.
A total of 60% of respondents support forming a unity government in the event of an inconclusive election. Of all respondents, 33% want a leader from the change bloc to head such a government, 19% prefer Netanyahu to serve as prime minister of the unity government, while 8% do not consider the identity of the prime minister important, provided that a unity government is formed.
Meanwhile, 23% of respondents prefer holding another election if no clear outcome is achieved.