EDITORIAL: Alberta separatists aren’t going away

While the “remain” side is expected to win Monday’s vote in Alberta, it’s naive to believe the separatist movement in that province is going to disappear.

Indeed, that’s not how most Albertans think.

A new poll by the Angus Reid Institute predicts the “remain” option will win over holding a binding referendum on separation by a margin of 66% to 34%, suggesting higher support for the referendum option than in previous surveys.

But whatever the outcome, 62% of Albertans surveyed believe “there will never be an end to the separatist movement” in Alberta compared to only 24% who disagree.

While the poll indicates most supporters of holding a referendum want to send a message to the federal government (60%) rather than actually separate (37%), it also suggests some momentum for the creation of a separatist provincial party in Alberta.

Significantly, the support for that idea comes from voters who currently back Premier Danielle Smith’s ruling United Conservative Party.

Among UCP voters, 63% favour holding a referendum on separation, compared to 37% who support the remain option.

Of the 63% who favour the referendum option, two-thirds say they would definitely support or consider supporting the creation of a provincial separatist party to participate in future Alberta elections, while only 4% rule it out completely.

Smith, who has been under fire for creating the process leading up to Monday’s vote, is already campaigning against that possibility.

According to a report by Postmedia’s Rick Bell, Smith recently asked UCP supporters behind closed doors, “is splitting our movement apart and electing an NDP government going to serve us well? That is the reality of what happens when our beautiful movement splits.”

Among other findings, while 36% of Albertans believe foreign interference has had a “major effect” on the referendum campaign, almost 80% say their “mind was already made up” on the issue of remaining in Canada or holding a binding referendum on separation before the campaign to hold the vote began.

That suggests the full court press by federal and provincial politicians in Alberta last week, including by Prime Minister Mark Carney, will actually have little effect on Monday’s vote, because whatever the outcome, now that the idea of separation is a live issue, it’s not going to disappear.

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