Brazil Inflation Forecast 2026 and 2027

BRAZIL · ECONOMY · INFLATION FORECAST

Brazil’s inflation is forecast at 5.22% for 2026 and 4.30% for 2027 in the Focus survey, the central bank’s weekly poll of about 144 banks, funds and research firms. Inflation here means the IPCA, the Broad National Consumer Price Index that the statistics agency IBGE publishes each month.

The 2026 forecast sits 0.72 percentage points above the 4.5% ceiling of the official target. It has risen for four weeks in a row, and it shapes how fast Brazil can cut interest rates, which in turn moves the real against the US dollar.

This page keeps the latest forecasts in one place, in plain English, and we update it after each new Focus survey, Copom decision and IPCA release. It answers the question foreign residents and investors ask most: how high will prices go in Brazil?

Updated 14 October 2026 · Next Focus survey: Monday, 19 October

Brazil’s Inflation Forecast for 2026

The Focus median for 2026 inflation is 5.22%, from the survey with data up to Friday, 9 October, which the central bank published on Tuesday, 13 October 2026. A week earlier it was 5.01%, and on 11 September it was 4.90%.

Four straight weekly increases have pushed the forecast further above the 4.5% ceiling. The median is the middle answer, so half of the 144 institutions expect more than 5.22% and half expect less.

Focus Survey Forecasts for 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029

The Focus survey asks banks and research firms for their expectations every week. The central bank publishes the median, the middle answer, for each year ahead.

Expectations beyond 2026 are calmer. The 2027 forecast of 4.30% sits inside the target band but above its 3.0% centre, and the 2029 forecast of 3.50% is the closest to the goal.

The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate. Analysts now expect it at 13.25% in December, which would mean two more cuts of 0.25 points from today’s 13.75%.

Live Market IntelligenceBrazil — Live Market BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.

Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence

Brazil — Live Market Board

B3 · São Paulo
Oct 14, 2026 · 04:55

Ibovespa · benchmark

206,887.52
-1.04%

L 167,142day rangeH 168,310

+21.85% over 12 months

Market breadth · 15 names

47% advancing

7 ▲ advancing8 declining ▼

Currencies, rates & key inputs

USD / BRL

5.16

+0.01%

EUR / BRL

5.95

+1.01%

Selic rate

14.00%

·

Brent crude

88.88

-0.03%

Iron ore

161.91

·

Sector heatmap · average move today

Materials

+2.35%

SUZB3

Mining

+1.16%

VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4

Industrials

+0.20%

WEGE3, RENT3

Financials

-0.10%

ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3

Energy

-0.12%

PETR4, PRIO3

Consumer Staples

-0.80%

ABEV3

Utilities

-1.38%

ENEV3

Consumer Disc.

-2.63%

AZZA3

Latin America scoreboard

IndexLastTodayStrength

IbovespaBrazil
206,887.52
-1.04%

S&P/BMV IPCMexico
66,965.15
+0.33%

S&P IPSAChile
11,020.01
-0.21%

S&P MERVALArgentina
2,869,151
+1.45%

MSCI COLCAPColombia
2,570.34
+1.55%

BVL S&P PerúPeru
60,645.95
-0.22%

Full instrument board

Instrument	Last	Change	YoY	Prev.	High	Low	Volume
IBOV	206,887.52	-1.04%	+21.85%	209,066.90	168,310	167,142	—
USD/BRL	5.16	+0.01%	-5.13%	5.16	5.18	5.14	—
SELIC	14.00%		—	—	—	—	—
PETR4	41.64	-0.05%	+35.19%	41.66	41.97	41.15	41,499,400
VALE3	72.97	+0.83%	+30.75%	72.37	73.54	72.66	17,658,000
ITUB4	38.60	-1.03%	+4.57%	39.00	39.34	38.39	29,487,800
BBDC4	16.85	+0.36%	+3.50%	16.79	16.90	16.67	19,416,900
BBAS3	19.37	+0.47%	+0.73%	19.28	19.44	19.16	11,069,200
B3SA3	14.26	-0.21%	+12.73%	14.29	14.47	14.11	33,037,800
ABEV3	14.89	-0.80%	+21.91%	15.01	15.07	14.81	16,453,100
WEGE3	47.59	+0.49%	+29.99%	47.36	48.08	47.36	3,364,600
PRIO3	59.14	-0.19%	+50.67%	59.25	59.81	58.74	3,325,600
SUZB3	41.33	+2.35%	-23.55%	40.38	41.48	40.35	3,914,900
RENT3	34.68	-0.09%	+0.84%	34.71	34.96	34.35	7,979,100
AZZA3	15.89	-2.63%	-53.76%	16.32	16.42	15.82	1,330,300
CSNA3	4.30	+0.47%	-42.65%	4.28	4.41	4.26	10,076,100
GGBR4	24.69	+2.19%	+51.38%	24.16	24.85	24.18	7,047,600
ENEV3	24.21	-1.38%	+70.49%	24.55	24.64	23.99	9,297,000

Largest moves today

AZZA3
15.89
-2.63%

SUZB3
41.33
+2.35%

GGBR4
24.69
+2.19%

ENEV3
24.21
-1.38%

IBOV
206,887.52
-1.04%

ITUB4
38.60
-1.03%

VALE3
72.97
+0.83%

ABEV3
14.89
-0.80%

The session read

The Ibovespa eased 1.04%, with breadth negative — 7 of 15 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.

From The Rio Times

Related coverage · 14 Oct 2026

São Paulo Daily Brief

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What the Central Bank Projects

The Copom, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, cut the Selic from 14.00% to 13.75% on Wednesday, 16 September 2026. It was the fifth cut of 0.25 points this year, and Brazilian media report the vote was unanimous.

The Copom’s own projection for inflation is 5.2% for 2026 and 3.9% for 2027, based on its reference scenario. For the first quarter of 2028, the horizon the bank cares most about, it projects 3.2%.

The bank said risks to inflation remain higher than usual, with an upward bias, and described a scenario of unanchored expectations that calls for caution. Unanchored means that economists no longer trust inflation to return to the 3.0% goal on its own.

In its quarterly report of 24 September, the central bank put the chance that inflation ends 2026 above the 4.5% ceiling at 90%, up from 79% in the previous report. That figure is not the chance of missing the target, which requires six months in a row outside the band.

The next Copom meeting is on 3 and 4 November 2026, with the decision on the evening of 4 November. It will be the first rate decision after the presidential runoff on 25 October.

Latest Inflation Data: The IPCA for September

The IPCA rose 0.82% in September 2026, the statistics agency IBGE reported on Friday, 9 October. That is the biggest monthly rise since March, against 0.48% in September 2025.

Prices rose 4.58% over the 12 months to September, up from 4.22% in August, and 3.95% since the start of the year. The 12-month rate is back above the 4.5% ceiling after two months inside the band.

Housing was the biggest driver, with a rise of 2.31%, as household electricity bills jumped 7.98% when a credit on Itaipu hydropower bills ended. Airfares rose 9.66%, and food and drink prices rose 0.83% after three months of decline.

Brazil’s Inflation Target and Tolerance Band

Brazil’s inflation target is 3.0%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points either side, so the band runs from 1.5% to 4.5%. The National Monetary Council set it in Resolution 5,141 of 26 June 2024, and since January 2025 it is a continuous target.

A continuous target is judged every month, not only in December. The target counts as missed when the 12-month rate stays outside the band for six months in a row, and then the central bank governor must write an open letter to the finance minister.

That happened once, in June 2025, when inflation was above 4.5% for a sixth straight month, and Governor Gabriel Galípolo published his letter on 10 July 2025. The rate returned to the band in November 2025.

In 2026 the rate has been above 4.5% in May, June and September, but never for six months in a row. We found no new letter this year.

What Brazilian Inflation Means for Foreigners

Rents are the first place readers feel it. Brazilian leases are adjusted once a year with a price index, usually the IGP-M or the IPCA, and the IGP-M, a general price index published by the Fundação Getulio Vargas, rose 1.57% in September after three months of decline.

The real is the second. On 13 October one US dollar bought R$5.03 (EODHD closing rate), and Focus analysts expect R$5.15 at year-end, so they see a slightly weaker real by December.

Interest rates are the third. With the Selic at 13.75% and inflation expected at 5.22%, the gap between the two is about 8.5 percentage points, our own simple calculation, so savers in reais earn a high return above inflation.

For a foreign resident paid in dollars or euros, higher Brazilian inflation erodes the exchange-rate advantage over time. Prices of food, power and flights are rising faster than the central bank wants.

What Prediction Markets Say

Prediction markets let traders buy contracts that pay US$1 if an outcome happens, so a price of 47 cents reads as a 47% chance. On Polymarket, the market “Brazil Annual Inflation 2026” (US$162,609 traded) gave 48.5% to a 2026 rate of 5.00% to 5.49%, 21.9% to 5.50% to 5.99%, and 20.6% to 4.50% to 4.99%.

A second Polymarket market on the Brazilian central bank’s November decision, listed there as “Bank of Brazil” (US$57,027 traded), gave 89.5% to a cut of 0.25 points and 4.8% to no change. Prices were read on 14 October 2026 at 03:50 Eastern time, and they are bets, not forecasts.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Dates to Watch

The IPCA-15 is a preview of monthly inflation that covers prices from about mid-month to mid-month. IBGE normally publishes both IPCA figures at 9 a.m. Brasília time.

What Is Not Known

No one yet knows if the September jump in electricity prices is a one-off or the start of a longer rise. The end of the Itaipu credit explains part of it, and the next IPCA releases will show whether food and flights follow.

The runoff for president on 25 October 2026 adds a second unknown, because markets may move with the result. We do not forecast how the vote will change inflation expectations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Brazil’s inflation forecast for 2026?

The central bank’s Focus survey of 13 October 2026 puts 2026 inflation at 5.22%, from 5.01% a week earlier. The Copom’s own projection is 5.2% for the end of 2026.

What is Brazil’s inflation forecast for 2027?

The Focus median for 2027 is 4.30%, which is inside the 1.5% to 4.5% target band but above the 3.0% goal. The Copom projects 3.9% for 2027.

What is the IPCA and what is the Focus survey?

The IPCA is Brazil’s official consumer price index, published monthly by the statistics agency IBGE. The Focus survey is the central bank’s weekly poll of economists, and its median is the standard market forecast.

What is Brazil’s inflation target?

The target is 3.0% with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points either side, so inflation should stay between 1.5% and 4.5%. It counts as missed after six straight months outside that band.

Will the Brazilian central bank cut interest rates again?

The Selic is 13.75% after a cut on 16 September, and Focus economists expect 13.25% by December. Polymarket traders gave 89.5% to a further 0.25-point cut at the 4 November meeting, and these are bets, not forecasts.

For the weekly numbers behind this page, see our report on the latest Focus survey. For the vote that may move markets, see our runoff guide and the poll tracker.

Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey, bulletin of 13 October 2026 (data of 9 October); Banco Central do Brasil, Copom statement, 281st meeting, 16 September 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, Copom minutes, 22 September 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, Monetary Policy Report, September 2026; IBGE, IPCA for September 2026, 9 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil, time series 433, 13522 and 189 (IPCA monthly, IPCA 12-month, IGP-M); National Monetary Council, Resolution 5,141, 26 June 2024; InfoMoney, Focus survey, 13 October 2026; Agência Brasil, central bank report, 24 September 2026; Polymarket, Brazil Annual Inflation 2026; EODHD economic calendar and USD/BRL data.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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