Le Pen projected to win French presidential election – poll

The leader of the right-wing National Rally would defeat both left-wing and centrist rivals in hypothetical runoffs, a new survey suggests

French right-wing politician Marine Le Pen has emerged as the frontrunner in the 2027 presidential race and would defeat both left-wing and centrist rivals in hypothetical runoffs, according to a new poll.

Published on Monday, the Toluna Harris Interactive survey for French broadcasters M6 and RTL puts Le Pen, the longtime face of the National Rally (RN), at 67% against Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the left-wing France Unbowed party, and 56% against former centrist Prime Minister Edouard Philippe.

Le Pen also leads all five first-round scenarios tested, with 35% to 37% support. Melenchon comes second with 18% to 19%, while Philippe polls between 13% and 17%.

The survey also suggests growing confidence in Le Pen’s leadership. Some 51% of respondents believe she would make a good president, up six percentage points from the previous poll, compared with 47% for RN president Jordan Bardella.

Le Pen reached the presidential runoff in both 2017 and 2022 but lost to Emmanuel Macron on each occasion. The incumbent is barred from seeking a third consecutive term. Macron’s approaching departure comes as France faces mounting fiscal pressures.

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In July, the Paris Court of Appeals reduced Le Pen’s five-year ban on holding elected office following her conviction for misusing EU funds, clearing the way for her to contest the 2027 election.

Her party has also strengthened its parliamentary position. In September, RN and its ally, the Union of the Right for the Republic (UDR), secured enough Senate seats to form a parliamentary group for the first time.

Macron’s centrist camp has lacked a parliamentary majority since 2022, leaving successive governments struggling to pass budgets. France’s public debt reached €3.6 trillion (over $4 trillion), or 119% of GDP, as of the end of June, while the proposed 2027 budget faces opposition in the fragmented parliament.

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Both Le Pen and Melenchon have criticized NATO and Western policy toward Ukraine. Le Pen has advocated withdrawing France from NATO’s integrated military command, lifting sanctions on Russia, and pursuing a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine conflict. Melenchon has called for France to leave NATO altogether.

RN has repeatedly opposed open-ended military funding for Kiev and warned against steps that could bring France into direct confrontation with Russia. Le Pen has called for the normalization of relations with Moscow.

The prospect of a Le Pen presidency has reportedly alarmed Ukraine’s Western backers. The Telegraph reported in August that officials feared her election could undermine French-led efforts to coordinate military and financial aid for Kiev, as well as plans to deploy Western troops to Ukraine following a ceasefire.

The Toluna Harris Interactive survey was conducted online from October 5 to 8 among 2,004 registered voters.