The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) officially confirmed this Thursday, October 8, the presence of the El Niño phenomenon in Colombia, with an intensity classified as between strong and very strong.
The agency added that the effects of the phenomenon, which originates from the warming of the Pacific Ocean, are projected to continue through the first half of 2027, with particular attention to the decrease in rainfall and the increase in temperatures.
It warned that, although seasonal rains are still being recorded in the Caribbean, Andean and Pacific regions, forecasts indicate that the rainfall deficit could intensify starting in December.
Colombia Is Going Through the Year’s Second Rainy Season
According to IDEAM, this scenario requires comprehensive preparation to simultaneously address the effects of drought, water scarcity, forest fires and the risks of sudden rises in water levels and flooding.
A few days ago, IDEAM reported that Colombia is currently going through the year’s second rainy season, which begins in late September and reaches its highest probabilities of precipitation during October and November, mainly in the Andean and Caribbean regions.
During this period, rainfall patterns can vary from one region to another and from one day to the next due to the interaction of different atmospheric systems, such as the passage of tropical waves.
For this reason, episodes of heavy rain, storms and electrical activity may occur, even when general climatic conditions indicate accumulated precipitation levels below the usual values for this time of year.
According to IDEAM‘s climate forecast, below-normal rainfall is expected during October across large areas of the Caribbean, Andean and Pacific regions, as well as much of the Orinoquia region.
For the October-November-December quarter, there is also a continued indication of precipitation levels below historical averages in different parts of the national territory, with December being the most critical month.
However, this condition does not mean that rainfall will disappear. The climate forecast refers to the accumulated and average behavior of precipitation over a given period, meaning that isolated events of heavy rain, thunderstorms and other meteorological phenomena may occur.
In this regard, during the second rainy season, the likelihood of events such as intense rainfall, sudden rises in water levels, flooding, mass movements, lightning strikes and strong winds increases, depending on the specific conditions of each territory and region in the country.
Government Actions in Response to El Niño
Given this outlook, and in response to the alerts issued since the beginning of the year, the National Government launched an interinstitutional response under Presidential Directive 03 and Law 1523 of 2012, with specific instructions requiring the responsible agencies to have their contingency plans formulated and activated no later than November 30.
The National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD) coordinates response capabilities across the territories and strengthens forest fire monitoring through satellite tools. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development is carrying out actions to protect strategic ecosystems, water sources and the areas most vulnerable to these impacts.
In parallel, the Ministry of Mines and Energy is implementing an emergency plan aimed at guaranteeing the country’s energy security by strengthening thermal power generation, ensuring backup fuel supplies, and implementing the efficiency and savings measures included in the Plan Energia YA.
The National Government’s priority is to anticipate risks, protect the lives of Colombians, guarantee water and energy supplies, and strengthen the State’s response capacity in the face of the effects of the El Niño phenomenon.