Greater China’s energy emissions to fall 79% by 2060, DNV forecasts

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BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 24. Greater China’s net energy-related emissions will fall to 2.8 GtCO₂ by 2060, 79% below current levels, according to DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2026.

DNV notes that this trajectory does not meet the net-zero goal for that year. The agency expects coal-fired power generation to decline by 50% from current levels by 2040 and says China’s 15th Five-Year Plan "strengthens decarbonization by expanding controls on total emissions." It also observes that "Fossil fuels will peak soon as renewables grow."

According to Trend’s calculations based on DNV’s charts, emissions stand at 13.3 GtCO₂ per year in 2025, declining to 12.7 GtCO₂ in 2030, 8.8 GtCO₂ in 2040, 5.3 GtCO₂ in 2050 and 2.8 GtCO₂ in 2060. The fall is modest in the near term — only 4.5% by 2030 — but accelerates thereafter, reaching 33.8% by 2040 and 60.2% by 2050. Compared with the 2025 level, the 2060 figure is 78.9% lower, matching DNV’s stated 79% reduction.

Absolute cuts total 0.6 GtCO₂ between 2025 and 2030, 3.9 GtCO₂ in the 2030s, 3.5 GtCO₂ in the 2040s and 2.5 GtCO₂ in the 2050s. The largest absolute reduction, averaging 0.39 GtCO₂ per year, occurs in the 2030s. In percentage terms, the decline is fastest after 2040, at about 5.6% annually, compared with 0.9% per year in 2025–2030.

Emissions intensity, measured as CO₂ per unit of primary energy, falls from roughly 73 million tonnes per EJ in 2025 to about 17 million tonnes per EJ in 2060, a decline of around 77%. Emissions therefore fall much more rapidly than primary energy, which declines by 10.9% over the same period. The 2.8 GtCO₂ remaining in 2060 equals 21% of the 2025 level.