SoftBank Group’s credit risk has reached its highest point in roughly four years. Investors are growing uneasy about how the Japanese conglomerate is paying for its artificial intelligence ambitions, and about a potential acquisition on top of them.
What the debt markets are signaling
SoftBank’s five-year CDS spreads have climbed to a range of around 380 to 400-plus basis points. Between June and October 2026, those spreads rose about 24%, at one point topping 400 basis points.
Insuring SoftBank’s debt against default now costs roughly 4% of the protected amount every year.
SoftBank has been issuing large amounts of debt to fund its AI push, and the biggest single line item is OpenAI. SoftBank’s total commitment to OpenAI has reached about $64.6 billion. As of early October 2026, that investment corresponded to roughly a 13% stake in the ChatGPT maker.
A record junk bond sale with a hefty price tag
To help finance the final stages of that OpenAI investment, SoftBank sold a record $11.1 billion in high-yield bonds on September 24, 2026.
The deal came with steep coupons. SoftBank’s dollar notes across various maturities carried yields of 8.625%, 9.25% and 9.75%, with the top coupon described as historically high.
OpenAI is not the only destination for the money. SoftBank’s debt-financed strategy also includes $5.4 billion for ABB’s robotics business and $3.1 billion for DigitalBridge, the latter tied to its data center ambitions.
Rating agencies are watching closely
On September 11, 2026, Fitch assigned SoftBank a first-ever BB+ rating with a stable outlook, while flagging risks linked to the company’s OpenAI exposure. BB+ sits one notch below investment grade.
S&P, meanwhile, has kept a negative outlook on SoftBank.
SoftBank’s share price has fallen 38% since peaking in June 2026, even as the company keeps pouring money into robotics, data centers and other AI-related projects.
The background: concentration risk
SoftBank’s portfolio is concentrated in two names in particular: chip designer Arm Holdings and OpenAI. A potential acquisition has added to investor worries, raising the prospect of yet more financing needs on top of an already crowded calendar.
What this means
SoftBank has committed about $64.6 billion to a single private company, financed partly with debt carrying coupons as high as 9.75%. Fitch currently has SoftBank on a stable outlook, but S&P’s negative outlook means a downgrade remains a live possibility.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.