President Donald Trump has handed Republican Senator Susan Collins a timely economic boost in the competitive Maine Senate race, unveiling support for the state’s lobster industry and targeted tariff relief as new polling shows her drawing level with Democratic challenger Troy Jackson.
A Fox News Poll found Collins and Jackson tied at 49 percent among likely voters, replacing the four-point Democratic advantage recorded by Marist Poll earlier in October.
The surveys measured different electorates, meaning the results do not establish a direct four-point swing, but together they suggest a contest that has tightened during its closing weeks.
Supporters of both Senate candidates appear firmly committed, leaving turnout and a relatively small pool of persuadable voters to decide the race.
Newsweek emailed the Jackson and Collins campaigns and the White House for comment on Saturday morning outside of regular working hours.
Why It Matters
Midterm elections have historically presented difficulties for the president’s party, and control of the Senate could turn on a handful of close contests.
Collins, seeking a sixth term after nearly three decades in office, is attempting to survive in a state where Trump remains deeply unpopular. According to rolling tracker data from the pollster Civiqs, he is 32 points underwater in the Pine Tree State.
But the veteran congresswoman has defied expectations before: in 2020, every final public poll tracked by RealClearPolling showed her trailing Democrat Sara Gideon, yet she won by nearly nine points.
A Lobster-And-Tariffs Boost
Trump has now given the incumbent new economic measures to sell to voters in a state where lobstering, fishing, farming and cross-border trade support communities whose livelihoods can turn on the cost of processing equipment, packaging and access to markets.
On October 23, the White House announced a national seafood plan intended to strengthen domestic processing, reduce regulatory barriers and protect American fishermen from foreign competition.
His administration’s America First Seafood Strategy specifically promises to help restore the profitability of Maine lobster fisheries, alongside more than $5 billion in guaranteed loans for modernizing meat and seafood processing.
It also proposes a voluntary “U.S. Caught Seafood” label designed to help shoppers identify domestically harvested products.
The policy does not directly promise cheaper seafood for consumers, but its explicit reference to Maine lobster gives Collins a locally recognizable industry victory to promote.
A separate tariff change removes 50 percent duties from Canadian imports used by Maine farmers and businesses, including certain refrigeration equipment, machinery, plywood, paper products and packing containers.
Nine agricultural product categories used by producers of blueberries, potatoes, apples and seaweed are receiving exemptions from tariffs on Canadian goods.
Collins said producers relied on specialized goods that were “unavailable from American suppliers or cannot be replaced without incurring significant expense.”
“I have asked for tariff relief for these important products,” the senator said, adding that she would continue pressing for a broader agreement with Canada.
The combination offers Collins a politically useful argument: that she can obtain practical assistance from a president many Mainers dislike.
Jackson’s counterargument is that the incumbent is claiming credit for relief from costs created by her own party’s trade policy.
Oregon Senator Ron Wyden, the Senate Finance Committee’s ranking Democrat, called the concessions a “desperate, 11th-hour attempt to save Susan Collins’ political career.”
For Collins, the political challenge is now finely balanced: claim tangible help from a president most Maine voters dislike, without allowing Jackson to make the relationship itself the defining issue.
Newsweek sought comment from the Maine Potato Board, Maine Aquaculture Association, Wild Blueberry Commission of Maine and Maine Lobstermen’s Association by email or online contact form on Saturday morning, outside of regular working hours.
What Polls Show About Maine Senate Race
The Fox News Poll, conducted October 16 to 20, under the joint direction of Beacon Research, a Democratic firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican one, surveyed 1,514 likely voters and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Interviews were conducted by landline, cellphone and online questionnaire.
That dead heat followed the Marist Poll of 1,505 registered voters, conducted October 1 to 4, which put Jackson on 51 percent and Collins on 47 percent.
The four-point gap was too narrow to establish a clear advantage given the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.8-point margin of sampling error. Respondents were contacted by telephone, text or online.
Jackson led 50 percent to 48 percent among the Fox News Poll’s broader registered-voter sample, within that group’s two-point margin of error.
RealClearPolling’s average covering September 23 to October 20 places Jackson at 48.8 percent and Collins at 47.4 percent, a Democratic advantage of 1.4 points.
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The Coalitions Beneath The Tie
Collins led among independents in the Fox News poll by 13 points, rural voters by seven and Mainers without college degrees by 16, although subgroup findings carry larger margins of sampling error than the statewide result.
Jackson held advantages of five points among women, 18 in suburban communities and 23 among college graduates.
Turnout presents the Democrat’s clearest opportunity. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats say they are extremely interested in the election, compared with 61 percent of Republicans; among the most engaged voters, Jackson leads by 16 points.
Balloting patterns point in different directions. About one-fifth had voted when surveyed, and those respondents favored Jackson by 40 points, while people expecting to vote on Election Day preferred Collins by 12.
“Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage,” Beacon Research’s Mikaela Linder said. “Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line.”
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The Risk Attached To Trump
Only 37 percent of likely voters approve of Trump’s job performance in the Fox News poll, against 62 percent who disapprove, including 54 percent strongly. A separate 53 percent worry that Collins votes with the president too often.
Yet the incumbent receives 20 percent support from voters who disapprove of Trump, evidence that a personalized political brand still gives the senator room to separate herself from the White House.
Economic anxiety complicates the picture for both parties. Just 12 percent say their family is better off than two years ago, while 51 percent report being worse off.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here